ATs flush river decision
Posted by Will Winaton
Posted by Will Winaton posted in Low Stakes
ATs flush river decision
BB: $122.88 (122.9 bb) 20/15/6.1/15/5 vpip/pfr/3bet/call steal bb/check raise flop
MP: $294.40 (294.4 bb)
CO: $150.57 (150.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $108.90 (108.9 bb)
SB: $124.83 (124.8 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with Ad Td, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1
Flop: ($6) 3d Jd 9s (3 players)SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $4, SB folds, BB raises to $13, Hero calls $9
When he ch/raises this flop in 3way pot, with these stats, i cant imagine him doing this with complete air. I think his range is like 33, 99, KQdd, TQs(with no diamond obv), (because it is 3way) he can have imo 67dd-89dd
Turn: ($32) 7d (2 players)BB bets $22, Hero calls $22
I am in position, ive got the nuts, i dont want him to herofold his sets, and i will have less then a pot size in front of me so i decided to just call. By the way with this 7d turn it is less likely that he has flush.
River: ($76) Js (2 players)BB bets $85.88 and is all-in, Hero $71.90 ?
Worst card in the deck again. He would check his smaller flushes, I can't see any bluffs in his range.
What do you think, can i win anyhow 33% of the time? I think it should be a fold, but it is never easy to fold turn nuts...
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