AQs OOP TPGK vs aggro player

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AQs OOP TPGK vs aggro player

What do you think about this hand ? and How would you play here and why ? villian stats : 32 / 26 - 4bet: 6 - BTN 4bet vs blinds: 32 fold to bet river: 55 wtsd: 28 won when saw flop : 54 in 1K hands..

HAND

11 Comments

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urb 9 years ago

If he's so crazy with his 4b I would either just flat call his open pre or 5b shove for value. Calling 4b is just gonna put you in akward spots - like here, since you're going to face strong uncapped range with pretty obvious (and capped) range OOP. Sucks.
It's not even obvious if you can bet for value on this river.

Brokenstars 9 years ago

Your 3b pre is way too small.

Bet river. He's likely checking river a huge % and you have bluffs here and he has bluff catchers.

IveBeenJuicing 9 years ago

Let's assume that he folds to a pre flop jam 100% of the time. 5 betting would yield a winrate of 1500bb / 100. That's going to be FAR more than flatting AQ OOP.

It might be worth taking a look in your database and looking at your winrate to see what it is in 3 bet pots, or even single raised pots. Playing OOP sucks pretty hard.

Given how agro this guy seems, I'd much prefer to get it in pre flop.

All that said, it's a pretty clear bet fold on the river. Especially if we think he has a lot of dominated hands or med PPs that would otherwise check behind.

IveBeenJuicing 9 years ago

@Welcometothethunderdome He's not folding 100% of the time (obviously) but for the sake of comparing winrates vs hands that we dominate or would fold to a jam.

There's a comment suggesting we should flat OOP so we can play vs hands that we dominate but the reality here is that we don't win anywhere nearly as much playing "poker" as we do when we jam (vs those hands) and they fold. This can be verified by looking in your database.

If you're not comfortable 5 betting AQ in this spot (and knowing that villain has a very high 4 bet) then flatting pre is a fine strategy.

Brokenstars 9 years ago

When flatting you need to win significantly less because your pot odds are good.

When jamming you need to win significantly more because you are risking more.

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