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AQo turn decision NL25

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AQo turn decision NL25

http://weaktight.com/5986638

Villain 15/13 (65 hands) Pretty nitty guy, I think He plays straight forward.

His turn range cotains hand like AcT+ 77 44 66, made flush, few weak Ax without club (AT-AJ). I think It's a fold, because I can't call the 3rd barrel on any river. Neither he bombs a club or a blank river. Is it make sense?

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Arthur R 11 years, 8 months ago

Your odds to call turn bet vs 77-66,44,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs  is 38% your pot odds just around 30% . Your hand contain 3rd nut flushdraw for Queen so you can play any of 12 your  outs on river  correctly  .But u need to donk river if u hit because he doesnt bet his sets and aces anymore and check with middle flush. If you feel you havent got impied odds fold on turn is not a mistake to my opinion

TheLove_Below 11 years, 8 months ago

Ok, Am i getting the wrong IMpression. We basically  Underrep the fact that we Have AQ TP strong kicker by not 3-betting preflop, and by taking a passive C/C 2-street line. 

On the river I'm definetly Calling, based on how the hand has played out.


TheLove_Below 11 years, 8 months ago

Alex, the thing is, i dont make general assumptions on players with small sample sizes. 65 hands, really isnt enough to determine the exact tendencies of a player. 

By coining "Nitty" is an over-generalization, is Opponent "nitty" preflop, or postflop, or both?

If you have a specific note stating, Villains Bet/Bet/Bet line is always 2-pair+, i think AQ is a clear fold on river. Furthermore, we have Q(c) blocker towards his Flush combinations, which i would've put in hisriver value betting hand range like Q(c)K(c), J(c)Q(c), Q(c)T(c),etc..

River: ($7.5/$25.25)=29.7%

 54  games     0.033 secs     1,636  games/secBoard: As 4c 7c 6c 9dDead:   equity win tie      pots won pots tied

 Hand 0: 57.407%    51.85% 05.56%            28        3.00   { 77-66, 44, A7s+, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, JcTc, Tc9c, ATo+, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KcJd, KcJh}

Hand 1: 42.593%    37.04% 05.56%            20        3.00   { AdQc }

our actual hand equity VS a reasonable river value betting range is around 42.6% equity, thus making our river call reasonable.

Sauce123 11 years, 8 months ago

In this post I'm assuming villain actually plays 15/13.  I DO agree with the above comments that 65 hands is not a significant enough sample to trust villain's preflop stats, or even to weight them lower with confidence.  If I had to guess, I'd say villain is probably between 14/12 and 27/22 with 90% confidence (just eyeballing it, not doing the calc).  Especially since 15/13 is a very low VPIP/PFR for the population of 6max players, probably in the bottom 5th percentile.

However, against a 15/13, this is a standard x/c flop, x/c turn, x/f river.  And I think it might be interesting why:

His preflop range is roughly ATs+, AQo+, QJs+, 44+, or thereabouts.  That's because to get to a 15 VPIP, villain either has to be completely positionally unaware, or he has to be playing an extremely tight range from somewhere- probably early position and the blinds.  It's a lot more likely he tightens up a bit from EP and the blinds, than it is that his range is 22+, Axs, 98s+, KQo+, suited bways, and ATo from UTG+1.

As a rule of thumb, you can call a street postflop if you beat some portion of villain's value betting range, even if it's a relatively small portion.  You rely on your pot odds, and villain bluffing sometimes, along with the hand(s) you beat in his value range to make your call +EV.  In this case, villain can (and probably will) bet flop with any ace, and turn with AT-AQ at least sometimes.  You pick up the club draw on the turn which has outs against some of villain's value betting range, (smaller flushes, AK, 2 pair, sets) and these outs combined with the fact you beat or chop with AT-AQ makes the turn a +EV call against almost anyone.  

On the river it becomes less likely villain "value" bets AT-AQ, and the only hands from his preflop range which are obvious bluffs on the river are offsuit hands with one club.  But the only non paired offsuit hands villain is playing preflop are AQo and AKo, both of which aren't bluffs!  So that leaves villain without any obvious bluffing combos on this river.  If you call the river, you have to be hoping he went for a multi-street bluff without equity with a hand like QJdd or KQss, or you have to hope he took 44-KK and turned it into a bluff.  I don't think either of those things are likely to happen vs a player as nitty as this villain, so fold.


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