AQ, reg donking

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

AQ, reg donking

Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (5 Players) BN: ausken: $5.00
SB: geo0rgi1926: $4.57
BB: AASmirnov: $6.06
UTG: David Bizar: $8.49 (Hero)
CO: lac_magpie: $5.00
guy is a reg playing many tables
26/17/2 125hh
Preflop ($0.07) David Bizar is UTG with Q A
David Bizar raises to $0.15, 3 folds, AASmirnov calls $0.10
Flop ($0.32) 7 8 6
AASmirnov bets $0.20, David Bizar calls $0.20
0 donkbet flop
Turn ($0.72) 7 8 6 T
AASmirnov bets $0.55, David Bizar calls $0.55
River ($1.82) 7 8 6 T 4
AASmirnov checks, David Bizar bets $1.50, AASmirnov calls $1.50

this may be a trivial hand, I just want to make sure I couldn't try something different at any point
maybe a raise on the turn and a cbet maybe shove on the river
or just a check behind otr
or a fold at any other point flop or turn
thanks

14 Comments

Loading 14 Comments...

pm6guy 9 years, 5 months ago

Might be a good spot to raise flop, especially with the As. If he comes over the top, you aren't going to win by bluffing/floating anyways and would need to improve. Being that he has such a low donk %, he should have made hands such as straights. I never expect him to flat made hands and draws will continue since I seriously do not expect him to get tricky with his draws unless they are double draws FD, SD combos. Basically if he calls, he has to have a draw and your A high is probably good. That being said, when the turn comes in, it smashes his calling range, but I would still bet with great equity to improve even though his hand looks somewhat obvious at this point. Another thing to consider is it is unlikely you'll get c/r OTT since I wouldn't expect him to really be donking most FD's OTF. I think it looks like a flopped straight that would have to fold turn/river. Other possible hands included sets which would be forced to fold and I wouldn't think a multi-tabling reg would be too out of line.

David Jimenez 9 years, 5 months ago

you shouldn't conclude so much out of stats, he could have anything with that donk, could even be a missclick

I'm reconsidering the hand and I'm not so against a fold on the turn now, but I don't think the call is bad, now the river is complicated maybe my bet is good, have to be a ch/bh if he never folds middle strength hands

Taunto_88 9 years, 5 months ago

I half to agree with Pm6guy. I can see us Raising the Donk bet... but if he fights back id be giving up.. this Board texture hit his calling range from the Blinds very well. If anything im calling the donk bet.. im folding to a turn bet for sure. Too many hands beat us.

i would be checking turn and hope for a free showdown.

sauloCosta10 9 years, 5 months ago

Give up river. The 4h completes some draws and weaker players are going to x/c here with a lot of trashy hands

sauloCosta10 9 years, 5 months ago

I dont like the idea of folding the nut flush draw vs what seems to be a weaker player. He might x/c a half pot bet on a spade river with lots of stuff.

iMRUSh 9 years, 5 months ago

On the flop every option have some merit. This flop is great for the caller, so U can even fold.

Raise also an option because this is one of the borderline hands to fold, and call maybe, with some good possible barell opportunities, but I think he can have a somewhat strong range like TP+, and draws as a bluff, so I think U don't have that much FE on the flop most of the times. As played also okay in position I think.

If he doesn't ch the river with flushes sometimes, U can overbetshove with Your flushes and with some bluffs like this with a somewhat optimal freq, or exploitively maybe, U don't want to bluff if the players on Your limit overcall the situation, like never fold TP+ or something.

David Jimenez 9 years, 5 months ago

yeah that's why I don't like raising flop either, it max out FE in later streets tho but has to be the more variance heavy line

yeah i actually thought about it, shoving the river but maybe he wouldn't fold a 9 and flushes was a small part of his range so variance heavy line too

i'm guessing many lines have merit, fold flop, fold turn and ch/bh river being the less variance, against a reg that I just didn't know at the time I think those have the best eq and maybe could try something extra with some more info as security of him folding a 9 for example

thanks i liked your read

Saren113 9 years, 4 months ago

How much value can we actually extract if we hit our flush on the river, I bet not that much as all worse flushes just have at best a bluffcatcher so that Would be my reasoning for folding the turn. I don't see that much value by calling the turn imo.

David Jimenez 9 years, 4 months ago

yeah that makes a lot of sense, that's what I'm thinking and the reason I feel now more inclined to just fold the turn right away, like the said above we could even fold on the flop and I don't think it would even be that weak, ofc with reads would be an easier decision

ValueTown 9 years, 4 months ago

It's more useful to think in terms of equity than variance. What percentage of your equity OTF do you think you can realise by either showing down and winning or having your opponent fold at some point?

Donking at these stakes generally means a strong hand, or one with a lot of equity, are we likely to get many folds if we bet or raise at some point during the hand given that this board texture favours bb's calling range as mentioned?

And if we get to showdown, either by betting river and getting called or by xb how often is our hand likely to be good?

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