AQ NL30
Posted by DirtyBasementKid
Posted by
DirtyBasementKid
posted in
Low Stakes
AQ NL30
Hi.
The opponent is 35/35 after 17 hands, so don't think that any stats would be relevant.
I guess my question is: what to do on the river?
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call with top of your range, if you fold AQ here, what do you call river in same situation?
AhQd is not the top of his range, think again!
Interesting river spot. Your hand is not as strong as it seems since your kicker doesn't matter and you block some flushdraws, so a hand like Ah5h would actually be better for calling here. I'm not sure if I would call with this one, it's probably pretty close to being a breakeven call on average, that would me my estimate.
Top of range:
◻ AQo
☑ 77,22,AKo(?),A7s,K7s,T7s,97s,87s,76s-75s
Although I have to say AQ is pretty far up in our range considering how wide we get to this river we're gonna have about 50 Ax combos and a bunch of missed FD's. We need to at least call some Ax otherwise we're folding like 75% of our range otr.
So what Samu Patronen said about the Ah5h not blocking flushdraws, and kicker not mattering makes a lot of sense.
Calling with a diamond here is pretty bad since our kicker got counterfeited here.
Just like samu said we should make his bluffs indifferent and his bluffs are basically busted FDs so it's pretty important not to block them.
Difficult to say without any info. Villain otr could also valuebet a worse A (maybe with 9-T-J kicker) since he can assign you a wide range (any Ax, lot of sc in fd) in btn vs bb, or even bluff a missed fd (you blocks a lot with Qh that's true but he can have KhTh, KhJh, JhTh or other lower sc). Hands better than your are not so much (Ak, flopped sets, KK), but probably he would not 3bets 22 and would not 2 barrel KK on that board, so we can realistic expect just AK, 77 (just 1 combo) and sometimes A7; against this value range there's also a good portion of bluffing range, and since you have 4:1 odds imho is a call.
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