AQ 3b(Sqwz pot) IP

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AQ 3b(Sqwz pot) IP

BB : 24/21 3bet over 207h is 16% but i dont think so i turn it down to 11-12%(should be fair and i think so it right) and also MP open 25% .

I did some calculating and thinking how he will play and i assume :
11% ~ 145 comb
flop :
his bet range on flop i assume will be :
value: 32comb
semi bluff FD : 9comb , 6comb GS

BDFD- 28 comb ( and i don't think so he will bet all BDFD all the time and also will not continue turn without FD coz he should understand here is no Fold equity ) .

(75comb) , if we remove some BDFD , his bet range around 58combs
check:
70(comb) Ax,high Broadway.

Turn : when he bet turn i think his range now :
14 combos : AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d (FD)
I'm not sure about broadway cards coz he can just cbet with it on flop(especially with BDFD) , we also can add TT-JJ?
23 combos if we add TT-JJ

river : 9combos of fd miss , 5 combos of Tx and also , 9 combos JJ-TT
and if he checking miss FD with Ax (3combos) and bluff with the rest + shove Tx and JJ-TT then we have only 30%
on river we need 32% . if he checking more than 3fd combos we dead here..

my thinking process right? Also i'm not sure about his range because as you can see player A ) can bluff with all FD's here then we are good to call , and player B) can check all miss FD because he assume i have overpairs here and will not fold(like 88+).

How should i train my thinking process/logic in spots like this ?

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $81.43 (162.9 bb)
BB: $50 (100 bb)
UTG: $60.78 (121.6 bb)
MP: $122.60 (245.2 bb)
CO: $79.38 (158.8 bb)
Hero (BTN): $65.81 (131.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.50, CO folds, Hero calls $1.50, SB calls $1.25, BB raises to $7.50, MP folds, Hero calls $6, SB folds

Flop: ($18) 5 3 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($18) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $10, Hero calls $10

River: ($38) T (2 players)
BB bets $32.50 all in, hero ???

9 Comments

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Disharmonist 9 years, 5 months ago

I like a back raise pre in this spot. As played, I would river.

peter89 9 years, 5 months ago

you call river? problem is he can have 'cc' flush in his range too coz we dont know for sure if he bet it on flop (not 100% time but some time..) and what if he never bluff with 'dd' fd? but i think he should at least with some combos...but even then not sure if we have 30% , probably no?

About back raise Pre , i will do it with QJ/KQ/KJ/AJ/AK JJ+
I think AQ is strong vs his range since he have all broadway cards and Ax

but if i'm right your idea mean you can get money more ez from preflop ?

like i check calculator of 4b and we earn around 12bb/100 without postflop
And then the question is can we earn more if we call? Maybe but it will be a bit harder to play ...

and also i miss action that SB call... then yes probably its better 4b...
Every time i miss this things (kinda small things but they are not too small) when im playing..

peter89 9 years, 5 months ago

145 combos PRE(can be more) , we have blockers , since he getin only with 30-35 combos , 4bet is +EV situation vs 11% .
So we get around 12bb/100 for hand without any problems (if my calculations is right).
for me as low skill player its best ! because im 0 in postflop games...

Also in stove we have 52% vs 11% lol i thought AQ have more ..

iMRUSh 9 years, 5 months ago

You can 3b sometimes against a wide MP opener, I think U raise most of Your premiums also, so if sqz happy players behind, I think it works better. I'm okay with a 4B preflop, but if U 3B Your premiums always, hard to represent value hands in this spot when U call a wide mp open, not a great spot for You, I think Your call is okay.

Your turn call is a bit loose but okay. On the river he can represent some TT, maybe 44 and some flushes, and bluffs what he didn't cbet. He hardly represent value hands, U also, but maybe U can chbehind some FD-s with some SD value because U not expect from villain to c/f too much in these flops wich is favors his range mostly. U can have some TT, 44, and a few flushes what U can represent, If U are deeper, U can raise sometimes maybe. It depends on Your flop chb, turn call range Ahigh with a nut flush blocker maybe better to call than some other bluffcatchers on the river, but it could be a disaster if he's turn AK to a bluff or something.

I think readless better to fold.

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