AQ 3bp IP
Posted by fightfight
Posted by
fightfight
posted in
Low Stakes
AQ 3bp IP
SB: $2.16
BB: $1.78
UTG: $2.00
MP: $8.25
CO: $3.45 (Hero)
UTG wins $2.29
Rake is $0.08
Facing turn bet I just wanted to fold. Can anyone argue for calling? I know I called, but it was against my better judgement and a dumb decision IMO.
Reads to me like a way ahead way behind situation, I check flop planning to call a turn bet as his continuing range vs a bet is going to be scary but he can certainly be tempted to stab with a dead hand once I check behind.
Turn comes in, and now any of his hands he could bluff are paired up or straight up and don't need to bluff. And then comes a giant barrel.
I'd like someone to make an argument for why calling is fine, to see one?
In game I am sitting with underrepped top pair good kicker and click call though I am entirely wanting to click the fold button
notes
I imagine I am beating no value hands that flatted 3B OOP and I am also dead against much of it,
he flats 3b oop from UTG, as well with one more to act behind him, he has very few expected offsuit broadways, which are the only hands that make a credible (one club) bluff.
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Sorry but I don't have a good argument for calling. You would need a read that villain is capable of turning pairs into bluffs frequently here to justify a call. I doubt you see this pool turning QJ into a bluff here.
Preflop, I would raise a little bit bigger. We can raise to approximately 24c and get calls, but as played preflop seems fine too.
On the flop, we need to continuation bet. There are many worse hands that can call. Ax, JJ-KK, loads of club draws. We need to extract value from them. Don't be afraid about raises, in 2NL you rarely get raised. (if you do it's almost never a bluff) In 2NL, you just need to bet a lot for value. The field is loose passive, meaning they call too much. This means we have to be valuebetting a lot. (thin valuebets and overbetting is great in 2NL). I would probably bet about 2/3 pot.
As played, calling the turn and river is correct. We're never folding the turn getting this price. He could also be bluffing with some club draws, sometimes people at 2NL show up with some random hands, although the sizing doesn't look bluffy. He could even have some valuehands that are worse than you. Some suited aces with poor kickers could valuebet here. Realize that because it's a half pot bet, we only need to win 33% of the time to make money on the river. Also consider what your hand looks like. Most Ax don't check back the flop.
Preflop raise should be at least 4x.
Mandatory small flop cbet.
Call turn.
River is bluffcatching/calling crappy recreational merged bets only. What bluffs does villain have? What are they merging? I think this is close without reads.
Is there 1 bluff to every 3 value hands here? You need to be correct 25% of the time.
think your flop check is fine at some freq, turn call is clearly the play and river should be a call in theory but in practice people usually size down with value and size up with bluffs imo given they perceive your range as capped and weak and want to increase your call freq with their stronger hands
You gotta realize how tight ranges are in this spot. Fold river unless V is a maniac.
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