Approach to river tough call spots.
Posted by steenjr
Posted by
steenjr
posted in
Low Stakes
Approach to river tough call spots.
Hi. Id like to discuss some questions about this hand and MDF approach at these limits.
Villian Info:
VPIP/PFR: 23/15
3bet: 7.7/25
101 Hands
So here is my analysis:
EXPLOTATIVE APPROACH
VILLAIN RANGE: AQ(8),TT(3),55(3), KQ(4), AJs(4),KJs(2)
OUR EQUITY AGAINST HIS RANGE: 15.22%
He offers 29% pot odds so the fold is ok in this point of view.
MDF APPROACH
OUR RANGE
RAISE RANGE(4):QQ(1),TT(3).
CALLING RANGE (21): AsAx(3),AsKs(1),AsJs(1), AQ(8), KQ(8)
FOLDING RANGE (15): AA(3),KK(6),JJ(6)
So the MDF ratio is 61%, so we have to call that percentaje to remain
inexplotable. Since we have 36 combos then we should fold half and a little
more I'd say I'd call Aces with a spade and fold the others.So the fold with
Kings seems reasonable.
I work with a spreadsheet to calculate average EV of the accions and the call
against that range is -EV.
So my question: What aproach do you take in these limits?. Both look so
diferent to me and im really tempted to just take the explotative approach,
cause looks easier but I really want to get better and be a competent oponent
in higher limits.
Im open a discuss of the analysis of the hand itself aswell.
Thanks
Loading 3 Comments...
So I don’t think I agree with your ranges here OTR.
I don’t think you have QQ or TT here. Would have either check/raised earlier or lead the turn. Showing no aggression until the river and waiting for a C/R would only work with the most spewy players.
I also don’t see a ton of calls with 55 PF.
That all said, I think our range is much stronger on the flop than BU caller as we have all set combos, all over pairs, TP, two pair vs vil really has middle set and one two pair.
Think I’m checking all my hands on the flip to project my middle pairs and C/R a Polarized range to fold out those SDs
I think he is going to have some more bluffs/thin value bets in his range here and I think 55 is a little less likely, but still a slight possibility. JJ can bet for value here since you can for sure have A10s, AJs, KJs or even J10s some of the time and a bet can also get you off KK or AA some of the time on this runout. He can have AJs and KJs here and be trying to get you off AK, AJ, AT by not checking back.
This is thinnish but I think you probably have a river call with this price.
I like your fold, and in nl10 you should be taking expo approach to try to make higher winrate.
Haven't honestly read your analysis and can't comment because of that , KK is good hand to call if you think villain will capable bet worse or bluff -> call .
Be the first to add a comment