Anyone wanna give an analysis of this Interesting hand between LLinusLLove and the jungleman?
Posted by stroggos
Posted by
stroggos
posted in
High Stakes
Anyone wanna give an analysis of this Interesting hand between LLinusLLove and the jungleman?
Sent this hand history to some people and they disagree with what's going on in the river. Anyone wanna break it down step by step?
PokerStars Hand #162872689782: Hold'em No Limit ($25/$50 USD) - 2016/12/13 7:31:24 ET
Table 'McMath' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: LLinusLLove ($7009.30 in chips)
Seat 2: w00ki3z. ($10731.56 in chips)
Seat 4: OtBRedBaron ($15612.78 in chips)
LLinusLLove: posts small blind $25
w00ki3z.: posts big blind $50
LLinusLLove: posts the ante $10
w00ki3z.: posts the ante $10
OtBRedBaron: posts the ante $10
* HOLE CARDS
OtB_RedBaron: folds
LLinusLLove: calls $25
w00ki3z.: checks
FLOP [As 6d 7d]
LLinusLLove: checks
w00ki3z.: bets $50
LLinusLLove: calls $50
TURN [As 6d 7d] [6h]
LLinusLLove: bets $55.68
w00ki3z.: raises $169.68 to $225.36
LLinusLLove: raises $373.29 to $598.65
w00ki3z.: calls $373.29
RIVER [As 6d 7d 6h] [3c]
LLinusLLove: bets $1026.21
w00ki3z.: raises $2608.29 to $3634.50
LLinusLLove: raises $2666.15 to $6300.65 and is all-in
w00ki3z.: calls $2666.15
SHOW DOWN
LLinusLLove: shows [6c Td] (three of a kind, Sixes)
w00ki3z.: shows [Ac 6s] (a full house, Sixes full of Aces)
w00ki3z. collected $14026.60 from pot
SUMMARY *
Total pot $14028.60 | Rake $2
Board [As 6d 7d 6h 3c]
Seat 1: LLinusLLove (small blind) showed [6c Td] and lost with three of a kind, Sixes
Seat 2: w00ki3z. (big blind) showed [Ac 6s] and won ($14026.60) with a full house, Sixes full of Aces
Seat 4: OtB_RedBaron (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Loading 12 Comments...
LLinus limps and jungle x backs a bad Ax. flop is standard, turn shifts equities(jungle probably not betting too many 6x on flop) so LLinus decides to lead (range?) for a small sizing. the rest of the the hand I'll abstain from commenting because I have now idea what LLinus is doing(probably drunk?).
Llinus turned his set into a bluff on the river thinking that jungleman only raises river with straights or better. With trips he blocks the few full houses that jungleman has. Also Llinus has AA, 66 and 77 which could all 3bet river for value. He doesnt really have any other better bluff candidates on the river because his turn 3bet range is very strong in the first place, with combo draws and 6x+. Seems like he was trying to get jungle to fold 54o. Nice hand
He can bluff with 64o no diamond, and 65o no diamond, assuming they 3bet the turn, instead of 6Td.
how often would 66 and 77 c/c the flop instead of c/r? It seems like those hands should almost always, if not 100%, c/r instead.
Also I would have thought that jungle should bet flop with 6x low kicker and check his 6x good kicker, do you agree? That actually makes a huge difference by the river, so do preflop ranges.
65 and 64 are most likely not always in his turn 3bet range since they are his weakest 6x combos. Also they block bluffs which makes Jungle's turn raising range a bit stronger so it makes sense that they would want to lead/call at least with a non zero frequency.
I dont think there should be much check/raising there on A76r on the flop. There is no incentive to do so. You want to play your range basically as bet or XC and mostly betting since jungle struggles a lot on this texture. 77 and 66 block a lot of hands that check behind so I think they will be played as XC very often there.
And I dont think 6x low kicker really wants to be flop while 6x high quicker wants to check. Yes, 6x low kicker wants more protection but the hands that it gets protection from are probably betting themselves from LLinus perspective
So I solved the hand in Pio and this is what I found (I used Pio preflop ranges for no rake SB vs BB):
1) LLinus should bet entire range on the flop and its not even close.
2) There is almost no check/raising on the flop
3) LLinus should lead around 60% of the time for 25% sizing on the 6h turn
4) Jungle should raise around 28% of the time in response and LLinus should 3bet turn around 10%, and T6 is already mixed so its getting thin.
5) 65 and 64 lead/call turn around 85% of the time.
6) 54o is indifferent between calling or folding on the turn vs OOP 3bet
7) T6 is always a check on the river. OOP value bets Q6+
8) 54o is just a call vs river bet, never raising
9) OOP turns some Q6-K6 into a bluff vs a river raise
Its the first time I've seen a real hand played more aggressively than GTO lol nice hand
Oh also BB almost never stabs 6x on the flop and actually the higher the kicker the more it stabs. K6 stabs around 35% of the time while the 65 stabs around 10%
54o are 12 combos while A6o and 76o are just 6. So if jungleman raise/folds all his 54o and bluffs, and raise calls A6, 76 only, then LLlinus should have more than 66% fold equity with the river jam. He is risking 6300 to take a pot of 5300 which is 5300:6300 = 0.84:1 = 1/1.84 = 54%. He needs 54% fold equity to shove profitably and he has at least 66% if jungle never raises as a bluff. So very +EV river 3bet bluff jam
Hey could you please explain how he is risking 6300 to win 5300?
when you say "pio" preflop ranges for sb/bb could you elaborate?
What didn't you understand? I have a preflop solution from Pio of SB vs BB no rake so I took the gto limping range and the gto check back range and solved for that board
Okay, thanks.
cool, thanks for the analysis, looks good. I was kinda suprised that it was a bet 100% of range and not even close on the flop, it looks like linuslove got that part wrong as well. I would have thought a twotone flop with some connectivity would have some checks, but i guess it just doesn't hit jungle's range very hard if he was playing gto.
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