Any stats that look bad?
Posted by Insilicio
Posted by
Insilicio
posted in
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Any stats that look bad?
Hi guys
Working hard on my game last few days (didn't play a long time before that because of a downswing) but I feel it ain't working. I wonder if you guys can spot something about my stats. Sample is like 12k hands 5-6 handed. Graph always looked like this in the past, except I was a 2bb/100 winner on average.
5-6 handed I play 24/19, cbet by street 57/44/54. C/r OOP 7%, fold vs cbet OOP 62%, fold vs cbet IP 56%. Fold vs 3bet 70%.
BB defense vs CO steal 28%, BB defense vs BTN steal 46%, BB defense vs SB steal 57%, BB reraise BTN steal 17%. Turn fold vs cbet OOP 44%. Delayed turn cbet% IP 70%. WTSD% 23, WWSF 40, W$SD 59.
Please help me, I am sick of 50nl and failed shots at 100nl.
*Also booked coaching last week to analyse some, he said my preflop 3bets vs high folders wasnt high enough with bluffs, but we didn't do much post flop stuff so that is why I post here. Also booked coaching for next week with someone else so looking forward to that. Just trying to put in effort myself too.
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First things that pop up are your flop fold to cbet. 62% oop and 56% IP are way too high. Your Fold to 3bet stat is also way too high.
Also your WWSF is too low which is probably due to your high fold to cbet.
I personally don't feel that bad about my fold to 3bet, since often I open like 100% since I think they fold too much and 3bet like 8%.
Yeah I agree about that fold to cbet. How would you suggest I start improving this? It is funny like I booked some coaching last week and we discussed ''standard'' defends bb vs minopen button. Luckily enough I did defend those. Sadly enough though I did worse compared to folding...
That's a lot harder to say without taking a much closer look at your game. Maybe filter for that spot in holdem manager where you folded to a flop cbet and try to find some closer spots where you're not sure whether you should have folded or called. Post those hands in this forum and go from there.
Are there any videos out there that cover really specific defends vs cbets? Maybe with the use of flopzilla/crev?
You say you are not too worried about your fold to 3b because you are opening 100%, they fold too much and only 3b 8%. Are you taking these stats from their overall stats? Maybe have a look at their 3b stats vs hero. Opening 100% and folding to 70% of 3b's is extremely exploitable.
Well obviously I don't always open that much, it depends on the guys behind me. I do use the 3bet vs hero indeed. Like sure man it can be a leak, but my button winrate is pretty decent and always has been, and my blind winrate always has been TERRIBLE so thats why I doubt that is my big issue. I just think that giving the pot away post flop again and again is the biggest issue to fix right now.
Ok, well if you have a good winrate from the button its not too bad. Judging by your non showdown winnings it seems you are playing a bit passively postflop. Maybe try find more spots where villain is CB'ing a tonne and folding to c/r's a lot when you call from the BB. I think this spots can be quite profitable when you have GSSD's and backdoor FD's. What sort of ranges do you 3b from SB & BB?
Isnt your sample too small to tell if your winning or losing. About your fold to cbets, just float more IP even OOP. Also your ch/r is quite low. About the fold23bets. Like yoy said when someone is 3betting you 8% its silly to worry about being exploitated.
Obviously sample is too small but graph looked about the same the 700k hands before that. Like I am a winner at 50nl but like 4bb/100.
Looking for more spots to c/r might be interesting to look at. Currently c/r around 8% and know some good coaches c/r less but maybe at 50nl c/r a lot is better?
Yeah I'd imagine the coaches are playing at a higher level where you wouldn't get away with it but at 50nl when some are opening 50% OTB and CB'ing 60% they are going to have a lot of air in their range and this can be exploited. You could definitely increase that 8% without being too out of line.
Would u like c/r A7o on q76 2tone?
No, I would play this a bluff catcher especially if villain likes to double barrel. You can't expect to be called by worse so essentially you're turning your hand into a bluff and we don't want that as it has good SD value. Just c/c 2nd pair hands especially BB vs. button.
Is this really good sd value? any K, J, T, 8, 9 is bad for you
Well it would be a good example to run through Flopzilla but when you think of their range they have a much wider range than we do so they are going to have a lot more air. If villain double barrels a lot it might be a good spot to c/r turn. This looks like a very strong line and you have some outs if called. Also, I think you should try think of their range more and how weak it is than worrying about what we have.
That is why I want to c/r.
Board: Qd7h6s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 69.79% 69.79% 0.00% { A7o }
MP3 30.21% 30.21% 0.00% { JsTs }
Like if he has a bdfd+bdsd he has 30% equity vs us. That is a lot to protect againstYes but you can't just do an equity calculation and give him one hand. You have to give him a range of hands. A standard reg is going to be playing 40+% of hands on the BTN.
W$WSF of 40 is extremely low, you're folding too much after the flop. I tend to think the low end of W$WSF in most NLHE player pools is around 44-45% for strong players. Being 5 points below that is a big leak.
Yeah had a feeling that was the case. Figured maybe it wasn't too much of an issue since I open often sb's very wide with tight bb and then c/f a lot, same for opening button and giving up vs tight guys. But yeah will start with wwsf from big blind. Thanks
Update: Started working with a coach, 2 sessions so far. Last 10k hands my wwsf is 44. Not sure how good the sample is but we will see :)
Hello, Insilicio! Happpy for your improvement! Looks like I have the same problem with W$WSF of 40, please share, how you raised it up? Thank you! Best Regards.
I call more vs cbets now (my coach and I worked hard with flopzilla to analyze spots) and I bluff more rivers. My fold vs cbet went down to 50% IP and 50% OOP. Also I turn more made hands into bluffs on rivers. Like it seems really easy if I explain it this way, but like I never had a clue when to turn made hands into bluffs, what hands to float OOP etc. Also it may seem obvious but we talked a lot about ranges too. Like I heard about it in the past but never really understood it. So basically my coach forces me to put villain more active on ranges. (like what draws does the turn bring for him, what cards improve ur range on turn so when he checks back what hands can you bluff) I think I ''get it'' better now, but clearly LOTS of work to do. Will have some more sessions with him for sure :)
Thank you for your reply, Insilicio! Looks like defending the right amount of range PF, takes you to defend right amount of range post flop and 50% FtoCB seems reasonable now! Good job! My problem was struggling OTT (like you said what draws and cards are helping him OTT), I am happy now that I found it and will work on it! And about on OTR, yes I think you can try to turn into a bluff your bottom perceived range there even if had some SDV. Good luck! Best Regards.
Would like to get my fold vs cbet IP down to 40 or something like that, but hopefully that will come once my feeling for ranges gets better :)
Also I find that often after a bit of grinding the sharpness to take down small pots becomes less. How do you guys work with that? I know its clearly mental but still interested in approaches.
Less tables has done wonders for me in this respect. It was a tip given to me by a great player and it's really upped my technical performance throughout the session.
I realise that might not be the answer you want to hear, especially if you have rakeback targets etc, but I really believe it's strongly +EV for my future as a poker player to get the types of everyday hand reading skills embedded into my "unconscious competence". I'm seeing more spots and can actually grind for longer sessions as well so It's not having the negative effect on my volume you might expect.
Yeah doing that already. Its more that I lose focus after it goes well for a few sessions. Becoming too comfortable it seems
What Danshiel said work a lot for me aswell..
I already only play 5 tables...
Last 15k hands wwsf 44.7 :) My fold vs cbet OOP went up to 55% and IP its 48% now. Def feeling good about my game (but also did win which makes that easier) so hopefully this is going to lead to 100nl again. Also the red line is going down a bit less now. That could be variance but if I combine it with those other spots I am def happy.
Did find another big reason for my low wwsf. If you guys want to help me out in this thread I would appreciate it: http://www.runitonce.com/nlhe/epmp-oop-as-pfr/
I do have the same problem from CO, SB problem is not so big (65%)
your main problem all has to do with your red line and the reasons it slops to heavily, I would know mine look alot like that when I first started NLHE online at 10 nl when I learned to fix that then I really shot up..SO work on that the most for now
I know, and its heavily connected to my low wwsf. I think that cbetting Oop as pfr only 45% and then folding over 80% to a stab is one big issue. I think that I am going to cbet more weak hands Oop in spots where people overfold. Seems like most easy solution to me even though some good regs also cbet like 45% oop but defend like 55% vs a stab. Just seems insane hard.
Other big issue is the high fold to cbet and finally not bluffing enough rivers and maybe low turn cbet. Got other ideas what can be the cause?
Take a look at how your results in the blinds..How much are you losing BB/100
Blinds will drag down the red line naturally.. Filter out posted blinds equals false
Take a look at what the red line looks like then ,should be moving up..
You also might be building pots that your not defending enough.. As well as not fighting aggressively for pots where both ranges have a lot of air and just giving up.
Dunno, I worked some on blind play with my new coach and feeling reasonable there. That said the 600k hands before this I was 10bb EP and 12bb MP. So could be variance maybe?
Allright so decided to show my last 15k hands. Maybe I have other things to work on now. Would be appreciated. Tried posting the images first but was too small so here u have the gyazo links.
http://gyazo.com/f82ec79329c8ff33594228cdf5b0b44b
http://gyazo.com/40a7111e11deb32039ea96cf1714922e
Yep..preflop you are folding vs 3 bet to high..not defending enough by 4 betting.. That is taking a hit on your red line..start reconstruction of your 3\4\5 betting ranges to get them balance to indifference equilibrium.
Take a closer look as to how much you must really defend your ranges to stop villains from auto profiting by raising ATC
If you found this helpful just click like:-)
Are u sure that fold vs 3bet matters? Like I often use my hud and 3bet vs hero and don't see what I am doing wrong there lol. Feel its more post flop like Sauce said.
Yes it matters.. Its not terrible high or anything.. However if you fold more then 67% villain auto profits ATC..mine is 62%..some strong players I play with are even like 58%..
My fold to 3b is around 55% but really in certain spots you can fold more than the auto profit calculation would have you believe. For instance when you open UTG - if you fold 68% or more to an MP 3b - MP can't really exploit you by 3b any 2 because he has 4 other players to contend with. The spots it is going to matter the most are BTN vs BB and SB vs BB.
All that being said you probably don't want to be opening so wide UTG that you are folding to 75 or 80% of 3b's. The auto profit calculation is talked about and used a lot but it is most relevant, imo, as a guideline - meaning we probably don't want to be real far off but it is not an exact number, another reason is how we defend vs 3b's if we only 4b we can probably play closer to the exact 1-a number but if we defend by mostly calling we probably need to defend a little more because villain's worst hands all have equity and he is not going to insta muck his bluffs every time we call. It is all rather messy and very inexact especially when dealing w/ preflop situations.
I would do your best to play as reasonable as you know how pre-flop and then really start looking at more post flop spots and try and get those spots more "balanced" - The best way, imo, to improve your winrate is to improve your play on the later streets, aka the "big money" streets, especially turn and river - (been talking w/ Nick Howard about this - and he is really big on focusing on post flop play and trying to clean up play there as opposed to such a strong focus pre-flop). I spent a lot of time on pre-flop spots and I think I did this because it is easier to work with pre-flop ranges than post flop ranges. Pre-flop you have 1326 combos, where as post flop we have 22,100 different flops (not accounting for card removal) and several different ranges on each flop - then there are turns and rivers! Pretty daunting and frustrating (feels hopeless, tbh) but the more we work on our post flop game the better we get at it and the better our intuition becomes in dealing with new spots.
I just saw this comment again, 2 months ago my fold to 3b was ~55%....I must be becoming a calling station because my fold to 3b for the last month or so is only ~44%.
Your 4b is less then 2%. To tight..that's fine for the micros.. Small stakes however your losing aton of value..the way you fold to 3b and only defend by 4bing 2% is very easy to exploite..stop calling as wide and add some if those hands to your 4 b bluff range..
Edir : to defend vs 3 bets..Hope this help and gl:-)
Sorry for the grammer typing to fast..
If those guys 3bet vs hero like 8% I just dont get why I would want to defend more.
Will watch some Nick Howard then and maybe start with crev for flops. What do you guys think about that?
You would want to defend more because it is profitable to do so, not only when guys ae actively exploiting you but you defend with hands whose EV is higher than folding which means you will make more money.
Big fat +1 on watching some Nick Howard, I would also highly recommend Tyler Forrester and of course Sauce
I dont have time right now to write out a fully detailed reply, I just want to say listen to these guys! they are giving you advice based on sound knowledge, yet I have seen you on multiple threads disregard this knowledge as nonsensical, and decide well im not going to call more 3bets because I! dont think I should Vs these tight guys. not a personal attack, just aggravates me a little to be honest, when people are obviously putting in effort giving you logical replies that are being for the most part dismissed.
1. 8% 3bet is not 100% linear, thus you have no idea what this 8% frequency truly looks like, it could be coming from 100 combo's of random 5 gapper suited connectors and 6 combo's of AA.
2. you only need to lose less than the size of your open raise in the long run, i.e. you min 2bb the Btn if you are defending Vs a 3bet and only losing 1.99bb on average with that hand, you are infact winning more than if you folded.
3. You are overfolding, thus you are being exploited end of!
I always listen to other opinions its more that I like to fully understand why certain plays are good or bad. In case u guys think I refuse to listen I am sorry for that.
Regular blue first two points are very important and I probably should have mentioned it myself..however its there now :-)
Arizona's post is very knowledge base as usual.
Having recently read the comments in Toy Gaming 4 and a few other threads, it seems we can fold more than 1-A on most flops (unless i misunderstand something).
With this in mind, what fold to flop cbet stat are you aining for? What has your coach told you looks good?
Actually I did a lot of reading on this too last few days. Tyler Forrester made a great post in James Hudson last vid. Basically u are trying to make his bluffs indifferent to bet or check and since checking bluffs is not 0ev but always plus ev it is fine if u fold a bit more. Like 25o on QJ8 always is +ev to check back. Once in a blue moon u turn a 5 and river a 5. Therefore u can fold a lill bit more. Since checking IP has more value then OOP I guess we can fold IP to a cbet like 40% and OOP 50% (this is totally my own guess based on thinking I did myself) My coach didn't really tell me a number yet since we didn't work on this so far. Like I cbet 45% OOP and c/f 80% once I check so that is what we are going to focus on first. After that we will probably look at defense vs cbets. I did some analysis with a buddy yesterday in his database and like his red line started tanking after a certain point. We decided to look at his stats before and after that point and his fold to cbet IP went up 9%, from like 38 to 46. Also my fold to cbet is way too high and red line tanks. I really feel this is a big reason. At work today I went over all posts in Toy Gaming (part 3 has good posts too) and I will start with CREV which I also did read/post about. Problem now is that I have trouble where to start but I guess aiming to defend like 60% to a cbet IP is a nice start. Maybe call 3% more if the board is better for our range and fold 3% more if it isnt. (again this are numbers I totally made up myself and I have no clue at all if they are reasonable).
To the best of my knowledge the 1-a defense frequency is most applicable on the river when hand values are static and it is a perfectly polarized vs bluff catcher spot. So not something that comes up very often in real life. This doesn't mean 1-a is not valuable though, it just means it is not the be all and end all. There are going to situations on early streets where you are going to want to defend more than 1-a and spots where you can defend less than 1-a. Which spots? How do we know when we can do more or less folding? I don't know - someone much better versed in theory would have to answer, someone like Game Theory could give a better answer.
Everything about poker is kind of messy and there are no shortcuts and no magic formulas. It is my guess that we can defend more when the board favors us and less when it favors villain. This is also going to depend on how we defend - it is also my guess that if we defend mostly by calling we need to defend a little more because we aren't denying villain any equity share and are giving the worst hands in his range a free look at the next card(s). I think using 1-a as a starting point can do wonders for your game though, how many combos would you have to defend to hit 1-a exactly on a XYZ flop? OK - x amount of combos looks like this in my range - now who does this flop favor? If it favors me by a good amount I will add a few more combos, am I only calling? Then I add a few more. Does it favor villain by a significant amount? OK - I can take a few away, am I raising a lot? Maybe I can take away a few more?
Again - someone other than myself will have to give you more exact answers, these are just the kinds of things I am currently thinking about when I think about poker and poker theory. Take it w/ a grain of salt and good luck!
Everyone who is interested should view Sauce's comments about game theory and 1-alpha in James Hudson's latest video thread - GT NO Thread (Sauce makes some good points...duh)
One more thing I would like to add for Insilicio in particular and everyone in general. A negative red line is not necessarily bad. Many many good players have a negative sloping red line and I have often heard that this is bad - sure it could be but a rising redline could be a big indicator of trouble too. Red line and blue line doesn't really mean much and the green line is the only one that matters. I know I spent a lot of time trying to "fix" my red line and it is time I will never get back, it is time I could have been using to fix actual leaks in my game. I heard Tyler Forrester mention he has a negative sloping red line and asked him about this, he quickly informed me how wrong it is to think a red line shows a leak or other wise. I will come back and link to that thread in a minute.
edit: The link I promised (red line discussion)
Seen the Sauce comments and i've got a long way till i feel totally comfortable with it all, but your take home points seem very sensible.
Afaik, if villains bluffs have similar EV to their checks, then we are doing ok. So clearly there is no hard and fast rules that are set in stone.
Gonna take a lot of CR-EV work i guess to develop finely tuned instincts for these things but in the meantime just knowing who has the stronger range etc works for me.
Its not a leak to slop down ..it is though usually showing a leak if it slops to heavily and quickly down
Oh yeah I did read that already as well, and I really dont worry much about it. But I do know that I play around 2bb/100 and that my fold vs cbet is way too high and wwsf way too low. So it seems all is pretty correlated. Also my bb/100 red line is insane tanking and ratio blue/red is almost one since I am pretty much break even. I want to solve the wwsf and fold to cbet and tbh I suspect red line will go up (go down less) automatically, and if not that is also fine. I just play ´too weak´ post flop and that is what I try to work on.
Absolutely! that what happened for me..my red line is almost flat nowadays and my blue line just goes up..
I think so too Danshiel. Asked in vid request thread for some ´basic´ crev vids for this, so who knows :)
I want to reiterate that you are folding far too often to 3-bets. This is especially true as your opening frequencies (aside from BTN/SB) are certainly on the tighter side of things.
It looks like you are check folding too often as the PFR for your CB frequency.
Thanks man. Did write it down again and will def have a look at it. For now the focus will be on the checkfolding and defending vs cbets, but will def look at the fold to 3bet after that.
Fixing a fold to 3b is probably the easiest fix you have and it will help a ton. All you have to do to fix it is: write down your opening ranges and then figure out what hands you can fold (only fold 50-60%) - w/ 50 being a bit low and 60 being a bit high but it should at least give you a start. It is the easiest to fix because it is super easy to set your frequencies pre-flop, you easily can know how many combos you open, i.e if you open 254 combos from some position - multiply 254 by .5 and .6 and that will tell you that you can (roughly) fold 127 to 152 combos, of the ones you don't fold 4b the best and the worst (w/ the best blockers) and call the rest. This is just a very rough guide on how to do it but it will get you in the right ball park and then you can fine tune once you get used to playing more 3 and 4b pots. There will be an adjustment period but it will help your winrate trememdously.
Will discuss this with my coach, thanks! :)
Moved up to 100nl, running hot so far so life is easy. Also doing more and more work with CREV so hopefully it will pay off
Congrats,
Just make sure you are doing the CREV work properly and making as little errors as possible and it will certainly pay off.
I am currently doing the same work, maybe you would be interested in swapping files and going over each others work to check for errors, and give each other ideas for ranges etc??
Yeah working w/ crEV can be tough as if your assumptions are off your results will be off and it is easy to convince yourself you have found a solution to something when you haven't. That being said crEV is probably one of the best ways to seriously improve your play.
Personally I don't do near enough work in it because I am so unsure of what I am doing that I don't trust my results.
@arizona, get involved and share your files then, hopefully we can all help each other out and improve together :)
Sure, pm me ur skype please. Looking forward to it
Pm'd
It is not even funny. Last 15k hands the fold vs cbet is super high again.
Could be some spots where your just over folding abit..you may just need to find some more floats.. look closer at the regs and see what board texture you can float on against.
U really think this is ''a bit''?
IMO your not terribly high..there some smaller leaks here for sure though
I dunno, feels like 57% OOP is insane high to me. They can just bet any 2 and be printing money vs me. But yeah, this will be my next project like I said after I fix this OOP play as pfr.
Good job
Discussed my issues with a good reg and he advised to work on play as pfr first. Going to work really hard on this with vids and crev to see why coaches do what they do, keep you guys updated.
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