Another sick river spot
Posted by TheArchivist
Posted by
TheArchivist
posted in
Low Stakes
Another sick river spot
100NL 6max 100bb effective
Villain is Btn, he opens for 2xbb
I'm in the BB with KQo, i 3et to 9xbb he calls.
Flop comes 436ss i cbet he calls.
Turn is Ko i value bet turn he calls
River is Qs- Hero?
Loading 11 Comments...
You rivered top 2 pairs but the flush got there, right ? what range do you put him on ? I think he has more than flushes in his river range so maybe you can bet small for thin value/fold when raised..Idk..
I would bet small and fold to a raise. There are definitely worse hands he'll call with.
Do you have Ks? I can see an argument for 2-actions on this river.
Jam seems generally consistent with our hand strength. If we assume villain folded 88-TT on the turn and 4-bets AK pre, then his specific range on this river is very strong. With our assumption, we can rule out jamming.
If we can't jam for value, then we should check/call. Villain's shoving range on this texture is possibly wider than his calling range. He could jam 2p+ and bluffs, when we check. This is wider than the likely 2p+, he calls when we jam. Our villain can't exploit our check/call because our hand is in the top half of villain's hand range.
Do you think betting small OTR is like turning our hand face up as a thin value bet ? Vs a good player, maybe we are exposing ourself to exploitation if we bet small/fold to raise as vilain will know that we are thin valuebetting and is more likely to bluff raise us.
@CPAU No, I think that we aren't getting hero called on this runout very often. It doesn't matter what we bet. If a vanilla tag calls our bet here, we lose.
If you were the guy facing 1/3rd pot bet on this river, would you be snap calling 55?
@TheArchivist I do, I think its a rational way to play this hand.
Agree mostly. What hands are 'bluffs' though on this river? Maybe 76s 65s 55 (and maybe 77?) he could use as a bluff because its at the bottom of his range. What 2pair hands will he have also? Doesn't seem like he'd he have k6 k4 k3 or q4 q3 q6
If this is a XC though, won't villain have to be bluffing a fair amount of miss str draws etc? I say that since if we assume AK would 4b most of the time then there aren't too many Kx that want to or will bet instead of a XB. Is a river X (if that's the way we play this) always a XC?
Tyler - I wouldnt call with 55 OTR in vilain's shoes, but I was thinking more about him raising us as a bluff if he knows that we are THIN valuebetting.
In general giving our opponent the ability to bluff raise us is a bad idea.
If our opponent never bluff raises, we win x=y. If our opponent starts bluff raising closer to GTO, we now win x < y. It's only if our opponent bluffs more than GTO than x > y.
I don't want to encourage my opponents to raise their bluff raising frequency closer to GTO. I lose more that way.
Ok thanks for the responses, esp Tyler. In the actual hand i Bet/Call (i know donkey) and villain showed A7ss
Be the first to add a comment