i'm interested in this line b/c it penalizes villain for betting too aggressively OTT with floats and weaker Ax.  

if villain checks back turn, are you in favor of CR'ing or leading most rivers?  Again a CR drives down the EV of any Ax that checked back turn,  but a lead targets a wide subsection of hands that have to call a bet in this line.  

My guess is we need to know his turn tendencies with Ax , and then it will relatively easy to see if either line is substantially higher EV (the less aggressively he bets Ax OTT, the more incentivized we become to go for a river CR)

which leads me to my last question..

-if villain checks back the turn, does it make it slightly more likely that he plays Ax passively OTT? (not sure if this is a practical application of bayesian)