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AKs two overs + fd in squeezed pot

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AKs two overs + fd in squeezed pot

I wasn't sure given the positions at the table and one player to act behind if this was a 4bet or a call. I think given that its suited it plays well postflop. Plus, I think he can be 3betting worse aces and kings which he will stack off with postflop, but not with pre. Villain behind was a reg, so I expect to have him crushed too often.

Villain was a fish 29/6 over 38 hands. With a 13% 3b. So Its not much to go by really.

I think once the flop comes down, we have to jam. Right?

http://weaktight.com/6363252


Ash.

11 Comments

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Sean Fri 11 years, 3 months ago

Are you jamming as a bluff or for value? Because I think maybe you have too much equity to be bluffing with this hand and not enough equity yet to be betting for value. Also, when a guy with a spread like that, even over 38 hands, starts betting and raising, alarm bells go off in my head. He should almost always have a hand that beats us at the moment, so jamming here seems a little gamble-y for the sake of being gamble-y. (I just don't see what worse would call - Any lesser A he has can't have a FD as well, so every hand we're ahead of - and I doubt there are many - has no reason to call.)

I mean, I guess the worst we could be doing is maybe 25% against TT specifically, and we're ok vs. even AA or KK, but it takes a pretty wide range to get up past 60%. Like, 99+, ATs+, AQ+. Plus, there's the  other guy in the pot, too, who probably still has all the sets in his range. I don't know - I think a call might be better? 

(btw - keep playing around with the hand converter, see if you can't get it to work. It's so much easier to have the cards and the reads all together at the top of the page. It took me a few attempts to get it to click, too.)

dynosoar 11 years, 3 months ago

were 30% in the worst possible scenario, hes going to cb a ton of hands, which happens way too much at these stakes, i think if we jam the turn we in fact have less value because our fd is unimportant without fe and fe is unimportant when we lose equity by the next card flipping. all-in-all. well played. jam flop.

Daz 11 years, 3 months ago

Its difficult to make a mistake here postflop with a hand with so much equity UNLESS you fold at some point. 

Getting it in on the flop is fine, just from an equity standpoint the question is whether there is an argument for flatting. 

If villain is very aggressive and will continue with his bluffs you could even allow villain to bet the turn too. 

ItsToothPasteISwear 11 years, 3 months ago

agree with Daz. The only plus I see to shoving the flop is if maybe we get AK to fold, given the guys stats its less likely he has bluffs to continue with, so maybe thats the better way to go, but really just so long as we dont fold we are fine

megatr0n 11 years, 3 months ago

I think check shove is alright since you're OOP, you're getting your money in good mostly or have great equity don't think c/c is as profitable..


clark116 11 years, 3 months ago

Polarized whats your reasoning? I'm more than happy with flatting this pre; I'm sure getting AI pre would be profitable too but I think we should be able to extract more ev taking a flop in position vs a player who we have a significant skill advantage on. Do you think the dead money from the CO and the bad relative position sways this?

SPrince 11 years, 3 months ago

4betting-Best scenario taking down 20bb or w/e of dead money pre or getting one of them to spew shove worse.Worst scenario being in good shape all in vs guy randomly clicking buttons.

Flatting-Paying rake to see a flop with premium hand, letting them both realize their equity, playing a bloated pot oop vs guy who`s nickname is SpewMonkey86 .

clark116 11 years, 3 months ago

Meta - I think a shove is the standard and obviously profitable play. I'm thinking a flat call could play out really well too though. CO is going to be tempted to shove with draws when we flat and we are doing real good vs his draws. In the event bb is better than we think post flop he may shove with bluffs on ace or king turns. Just some food for thought.

clark116 11 years, 3 months ago

Doing some quick math on the preflop, giving him a getting it in range of AA-JJ, AK, AQs, and a 3betting range of 10% (so that we are taking the pot down preflop 67% of the time) I am getting a 9bb ev for our preflop 4bet. I instinctively feel we can squeeze more ev post flop. Maybe I am way overestimating this. Also I acknowledge that maybe I am not giving enough weight to him spazzing with ATo or something to a 4bet preflop.

I am not trying to say you are wrong to 4bet preflop, but I still don't see it as clear cut as you seem to, and if you are right that it is clear cut I want to convince myself of this.

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