AKs shove on the river with a busted draw after double barrel?
Posted by yehudi
Posted by
yehudi
posted in
Low Stakes
AKs shove on the river with a busted draw after double barrel?
Blinds: $0.01/$0.02 (6 Players)
SB: $2.02
BB: $2.16 (Hero)
UTG: $1.33
MP: $3.15
CO: $2.24
BN: $5.82
BB: $2.16 (Hero)
UTG: $1.33
MP: $3.15
CO: $2.24
BN: $5.82
Preflop
($0.03)
Hero is BB with
K
A
, , , ,
Flop
($0.35)
5
Q
J
,
Turn
($0.75)
5
Q
J
J
,
River
($1.55)
5
Q
J
J
4
,
Hi all! Would this be a shove on the river instead? Villain was unknown (21/11 - 29 hands).
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21/11 shows at least a tendency. A tendency of passivity - and an attitude for calling.
Given that he can have all AA (yes), KK, QQ, JJ, AQ, AJ and finally AK, the only hand that you actually are aiming to bluff against is AK. Does not sound promising. If he happens to call down with TT, so be it, most of the time it won't - and most likely more often than the ~50% you'd need (and then you are simply break-even, so why bother).
It’s 29 hands, I would also give him some random hands. He could end up a 30/14
Why did you even post the stats then? He could end up being a 11/10 as well, if I follow your argumentation. I said "tendency". Probability is higher that he's passive and stationary than that he's a maniac.
By the way, 30/14 is not far away from 21/11 if you read AND understand my arguments.
And How about my bet on the turn?
Borderline. But you got to call anyways, so you define the betsize, so I think it's okay.
turn bet is probably mixed - first instinct is no on river barrel
he cant fold Qx/J here
if you jam you push him off his ak combos, if you check he may bluff worse or check back worse - so checking river seems superior
Why mixed? We have a royal flush draw, a flush draw, street and our A and K might even be live. We also only have 29 hands on the guy/girl
I am talking about your turn comment. Not your river comment.
Are you alright BigFiszh ? Your typing comes across a bit aggressive. It also seems you are not really reading since you are confusing me with the one posting the hand.
So what?!
i see that you are using heuristics to justify bets - betting with strong draws, which is perfected valid
but the ev of these hands are determined on what other stuff gets bet here and what gets defended and a lot of stuff is closer than you think so its very likely a mixed line
im obvious betting here in practice as well, but i think the ev differential between checking and betting is small enough to consider if we are betting way too strong on this turn with combo draws into a range thats rare folding
if he has AA/KK here (which he should not in theory) like bigfish says, then that marginally better bet can easily become an adjusted exploit check since your not playing optimal ranges nor your opponents
In fact I confused you with the threadstarter.
Still, it makes no sense to bet. We have no valuebet, we still only have a semi-bluff. Our EQ against a range of KK-TT,AKs-AJs,KQs,QJs,AKo-AJo,KQo is ~33%! Against the given range (assuming we are getting AK and TT to fold) we got 30% fold equity. Our EQ vs. the continuing range (JJ+, AJ+,KJ+) is 27%. That is not sufficient to turn our bet into a +EV bet. So, what's the reason for betting?
The only reason might be to protect our EQ against a psb - which we could not profitably call (not even with implied odds), but even that is proven to be -EV unless Villain is betting potsize (!) very aggressively (with KQ+).
BigFiszh i didn’t post this hand….
I think Dr. Maximilious Exploitopoulos MD that here also comes the feel of the game into play. If it is mixed it might not matter much and if you then go based on the feel of the game you might have balance it over the long run because sometimes you do and sometimes you don’t.
On this level I might see any pocket pair
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