AKs flush probably overplayed
Posted by KillEV
Posted by
KillEV
posted in
Low Stakes
AKs flush probably overplayed
BN: $15.24 (Hero)
SB: $12.80
Hi, I'm not really sure about this hand I played yesterday, it felt like overplay on the river but when I looked at ranges it didn't seem as terrible as I thought. On the turn I think it is quite bad to raise, I didn't think it through enough in the hand I just saw my 2 overs and FD and he was betting so small I decided to attack.
I don't have stats, but this guy is a weaker player. I've seen him donk and barrel recently with the same sizing on flop and turn with a 2nd-pair type hand. So here I assume his range is NOT that given that his sizing increased on the turn. So I could give him something like 8x, 9x, some TT, some FDs and some pair+FD - most/all of which isn't folding to my raise...
He probably gets to river with this range: {99-TT,JTs,T8s,98s,87s,65s,JTo,98o,87o,QsJs,QdTd,QsTs,Td9d,Ts9s,6d4d,5d4d,4d3d,QdJd}[#51]. By shoving into this range, he probably calls with this: {99,JTs,T8s,98s,87s,65s,JTo,98o,87o,5d4d,4d3d,6d4d}[#40]. That is 22% FE. With these ranges, we have apparently EV = +$3.96 for shoving. Which feels way too high in this spot, so I'm sure I've got some problem here.
Or maybe it's not terrible? I'm assuming he can't fold trips here because he's shown he's a pretty bad player, but I didn't include things like J8s,Q8s,K8s,A8s which I think he will also have and which also improves my EV...
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If he's a weak player that likes to call your shove on the river is good.
On the other hand, I don't like your raise on the turn because he's giving you good odds to call and if you get shoved on you'll have to fold.
Ya don t really get the turn raise. He aint folding TP and we have both showdown value and a big draw. OTR jamming is thin feeling but maybe he has enough flushes and will make an awful call with 8x enough to go for it?
turn call is better, yu have good odds and don't make him fold pairs,i like the shove river if oppo is a fish
I'd like to add this hand to my X back range is this board a few times.
Flop is fine.
Turn is bad. No need to raise.
River is horrible, most guys won't call with weaker flushes, unless you have reads on him.
I almost feel like turn can be value-raised there with the amount of spade/diamond flushdraws and oesd he can call there, so i dont mind.
River runout is really interesting. I would just call his bet 7d and shove at blank diamonds like 2d-5d. 7 is completing more possible boats than lower cards and also he has now two combos of str8-flushes that are beating you.
This is for unknown-opponent.
With this read:
Easy shove imo, you can give him now some str8s and 8x into calling range and propably get like 70%eq+ against his range on call.
Seems like there are some conflicting opinions!
Just to clarify, the previous hand I played with him that I refer to: he had a weak pair and bet 3bb on the flop and 3bb on the turn. Not the same sizing as in this hand, so I assumed he was a bit stronger here...
I just shoved the river because although I'm beaten by the many 2pair hands that are possible, he also has many straights and worse flushes, and I also don't believe trips fold.
I think raising turn is fine, cuz u have way more 8 than villain does. This play could work better in higher stakes vs player who can hand read and range-aware. But there are better candidates to bluff raise turn like QT, QJ, 75, Ad7 that blocks his partial continuing range. AKd have way more shown down value that those hands, so better served as a call. Given the player type you described best play is to call turn.
On the river, u are repping boat, in effect (taken into account the turn raise). So a little bit over rep by jamming ... But if u think he cannot fold his straight or even trips... then jamming is obviously positive EV. Given his size on river which does not scream boat or better, I think u can do an exploitative min raise fold. This guarantees him calling with straights (even trips), (he does not have many flushes other than straight flush), meanwhile we can fold to a jam with ease.
Somewhat, I smell 44 from villain. lol.
I think you can't have an exclusive strategy for this hand, when someone donks 2/3, donk small/call raise then leads 1/2pot again OTR when both FD and SD come in, I would be clueless. It's so rare to see the lines he took in this hand, and it's clearly fishy but way different then the average fish.
If he has boats in his range, it's an easy call. But what if he would x/r a hand like 99, 44 or 89 OTT instead of donk/calling? or x/calling & then spazzing out OTR with an overbet, big bet or idk what because he doesn't want you to just check behind.
So, I personally would weigh him more towards no-boats by the way he played his hand and except to see the occasional rape of 44, 89 etc, but my main question to jam or not would be do I think he calls me with 9x,TT,56??, does he have JT, ... I expect to get called by all his 8x
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