AK TPTK river bet spot

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AK TPTK river bet spot

BN: $100 (Hero)
SB: $115.12
BB: $66.38
UTG: $104.09
HJ: $40.51
CO: $100
UTG is a reggist player playing around 24/19 I presume hes opening utg about ~13%
BB is a fish playing 48/28
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K A
UTG raises to $3, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero calls $3, SB folds, BB calls $2
vs the UTG's range I decided to flat with AKs IP and potentially have the fish come along.
Flop ($9.50) 8 K T (3 Players)
BB bets $1, UTG raises to $6, Hero calls $6, BB calls $5
UTG's range when raising the fish consists of alot of J9s QJ AA QQ JJ TT 88 87cc discounted KQ KJ KT AK
Turn ($27.50) 8 K T 4 (3 Players)
BB checks, UTG bets $17, Hero calls $17, BB folds
When barrelled his value range looks pretty strong, but due to his bet size I feel like he can contine alot with his draws as well. J9s QJ AA 87cc 88 TT discounted KQ KJ KT AK, I felt I had enough equity to call and decide on the river.
River ($61.50) 8 K T 4 2 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $39.02
When river bricks and UTG checks, I decide to bet since my range can consist of missed draws as well. Thinking back on it I feel like I should just check back river and thin value was not a good idea.
I feel like this board run out is not good for me either way regardless. If river turns heart or club and villain barrels river I fold, If villains barrels on a brick I'm tempted to fold as well since I think calling vs his range is like flipping a coin.

3 Comments

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event78 12 years, 2 months ago
I think your turn/river play depends on his UTG opening range and if he opens KQo (the case here? because there is a fish in the blind?). Multiway with a fish in the pot I think he doesnt always bet his draws (except big combodraws) because there is no FE (you rep a draw, Kx, 88/TT so you probably won't fold turn and we expect the fish to call light turn). If he doesn't open KQo UTG, he won't value enough hands that you beat turn (4combos KQs/KJs) so you don't have enough equity to call turn (+ not sure you will realise your equity river).

If he doesn't open KQo pre, he probably won't have enough bluffcatchers river (4combos KJs/KQs). How often does he bluffcatch with AA/KK (blocks most Kx)? He could take this line with these hands cause as you said you have a lot of draws, when he 3barrels his range looks so strong and he protects his c/f range. How often does he go for a c/r with sets/two pairs?

In a vacuum I like your line. I expect most regs to value river AA/set against Kx, to take this line with KQ/KJs and always c/c with these hands.

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