AK 200 deep oop
Posted by Wysedroid
Posted by
Wysedroid
posted in
Low Stakes
AK 200 deep oop
I've been thinking a lot (waaay too much) about this hand and I need your input.
Villain is a winning ls/ms reg. 6max .50-1 and he's 200 deep and I cover. He also see's me as a winning reg and doesn't really go out of his way to tangle with me. (seems that way anyway)
He's hj and makes it 2.4x- everyone folds to me in bb and I make it 9x with AKo- he Cs.
Flop: AQ5r
I cbet 14 and he Cs.
Turn: 8o completing rainbow.
I bet ~27 into ~48 and he Cs again.
River: 2o. Now the pot is a little over 100 and we both have ~130-135-ish......
Do you bet? how much? If you check- why? what do you do if he jams? bets around 65?
Thanks in advance. Please let me sleep......
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I would rather go all in or check behind. If you bet 60 and he calls with worse, you lose a ton of money. If he has you beat, he will check raise and you cant really fold with such pot odds. I would check against this opponent and put him on aq or qq. I dont think a winning player calls with AJ or worse too often. You cant represent a busted draw that bluffs the river to make him hero call either, your line looks super strong.
I like over-jamming to look weak and get looked up by a bluff catcher, betting 1/3 pot for thin value and taking a bet / fold line, or just checking.
The problem with checking, however, is that you really don't know where you are at if villain bets the river. With a 1/3 sized pot bet, you can get looked up by a weaker A and protect yourself from having to call a larger value bet OTR if you checked.
The problem with jamming is that we're 200bb's deep and if I'm called, particularly on that specific brd, I'm probably never good...... This is a reg- and betting 1/3 pot (when i can easily just slightly overbet ai) seems to me that he will sniff it out as what it is and play perfectly vs it. I would have to balls-to-the-wall 3 barl him ai 200 deep for him to call me with Ax here....
The problem with checking is that if he checks back I'm good 100%, but when he bets, whatever he bets, is with hands he almost can't get to the river with that want to bet the river. Meaning if he bets, I'm screwed. THIS is why I think unless the river goes x-x, I'm behind..... This is why I'm having such a problem with this hand. We're so deep and this player is capable, so if he has AJ or something he just checks back and would not turn his KQ into bluffs (and I think he's unlikely to get to the river with it anyway)
I may be giving him too tight a range, but there aren't any draws he would call twice with, and he easily can have AQ, QQ to call 2 barrels deep ip. His river bet-when checkt-to range is just too strong imo......As you can see this is why this hand is killing me.....
How about checking the turn? Check-calling the turn? The only draws out there are gutshots and not too many. His 3bet-calling range that calls that flop is AJ-AQ, JJ-KK, KQ, QTs, QJs, JTs.
I think only QQ and AQ would fire the turn and river if we check-called the turn.
Bet about half pot. You have an uncapped range. Villain is capped at QQ. You can throw away if he does shove all-in OTR, but since you have a stronger range you don't have to worry too much about that imo.
He has enough Ax hands that can call a bet and not many hands that he has to turn into a bluff or thin value-bet if checked to. He may just call with A5 or AQ too.
"He has enough Ax hands that can call a bet and not many hands that he has to turn into a bluff or thin value-bet if checked to"
This is precisely why I checked, he bet around 67 or something, and I folded. Still feels dirty......
I'm probably not betting 100 percent of the time that flop. Especially OOP, giving him a well spot to bluff. I think we are well ahead on that flop and x/c should be the line.
I'd bet and let villain deal with the tough decision.
He can turn JT into a bluff OTR.
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