AJo TPTK tough 3bet pot spot.

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AJo TPTK tough 3bet pot spot.

BN: $150.89
SB: $30.52 (Hero)
BB: $42.45
UTG: $61.58
HJ: $25.35
CO: $36.97
BTN: 21/16/5% 3bet
WTSD/W@SD/WWSF: 30/53/48
BTN Steal: 31%
Fold to 3Bet: 30%
BTN 4B Range: 2%

What I gather is that he's not opening too wide on the BTN but defending a lot of that range to 3bets.
And only 4betting for pure value.
I still do not want to call AJo OOP so I wen't for 3bet.
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A J
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.15, BB folds, BN calls $1.50
Flop ($4.75) 4 J 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $2.30, BN calls $2.30
Turn ($9.35) T (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN bets $5, Hero calls $5
I decide to take a pot control line against his tight ranges and check-call.
River ($19.35) 3 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN bets $141.34

I feel that I have to call this river because of the line I took.Against more aggressive BTN openers I would be snapping here.Against this guy I am not sure if is a good call?

9 Comments

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Zergwentape 11 years, 6 months ago

Bet>c/r>c/c If he checks back you loose a ton of value either on the turn or river. This is top of your range here. I mean would you check QQ here as well?

TheLove_Below 11 years, 6 months ago

WHy would you Pot control on T(s) turn card, when it brings so many FD/OESD/Gutshots into the mix. I think checking AJo OTT is a mistake, in terms of evaluating VIllains overall range, youre missing so much value by not Betting your AJo OTT for equity protection+Value.

RIver: I'm leaning towards a Call, given VIllain should have a decent % of Bluffs in his river Jamming range.

Chael Sonnen 11 years, 6 months ago

Agree.

Also, your 3-bet sizing is way too small. You made it less than 3x.
Make it about 3.5x out of position. Depends on stack depth and Villians opening size.

TheSnapper 11 years, 6 months ago

Hard to see any hands in villains range that have zero sdv and need to bluff, lots of missed Tx str8 draws are potential winners versus our weak line.

Maybe bet ~$6 on the river and fold to a raise. I mean villain can't perceive any fold equity here right.

Gross spot. May play out easier if we check flop? What does flop bet achieve?

TJ Serdar 11 years, 6 months ago

I'm not a fan of pre, I think AJo is a tad too weak to 3bet for value here given villain's strategy.  A better strategy is to 3bet something like AQs+,QQ maybe JJ, and then an appropriate amount of bluffs.  Note that if he's defending often to your 3bets, his flop range becomes weaker, making your flop c-bets more successful on average.

I noticed you said on turn you decided to pot control vs a tight range.  I think the major logic flaw here is if villain's range is already tight on the flop and then you bet and he calls, now you've just made his range even tighter.  It seems a little schizophrenic to me to say "Oh, I can bet this hand on the flop for value against a tight range" then on the turn say "whoa his range is pretty strong now, I better check and pot control."  An alternative way to approach this spot is to ask yourself "can I get 3 streets of value with this hand?" if so, go b/b/b on good run-offs.  If not, consider checking flop and bluff catching, or betting tu and river for value after flop checks through.

On to the river:

So for value he has {JTs(2), 88(3), TT(3)} if he's defending close to optimally.  If he's a bit wider he could potentially have a few 44/Q9s/97s combos in there too since your a bit deeper to start the hand.  I think we should add a few of those, so lets say 6 combos of that.  So total value combos: 14

For bluffs, he can have hands like 56s(3), 67s(3), KQs(3), potentially some 55-77 combos.

So if we say he's bluffing ~9/23 that means he's bluffing ~39% of the time.  He only needs to be bluffing 34% of the time for this to be a call.  He only needs to have ~7.5 bluff combos in order to make calling good.  Given that coupled with the fact your probably near the top of your range calling seems like the play.

RaoulFlush 11 years, 6 months ago

dont get your logik pre....if villain is opening 30% Bu and calling 70% (maybe way more given positions) to a 3bet we have an easy 3bet for value. And we also crush this range on this kind of flop, what should still be the case OTT. I would just b/b/b this spot tbh....But nice evaluation for a river XC line

friedpie 11 years, 6 months ago

RaoulFlush AJo here has 55% equity vs his defending range so I wouldn't say it is an "easy" 3bet for value given that he has positional advantage on us.
I would still rather 3bet it than just flat and risk having the BB squeeze us off our hand.


@Overbet Good points and what you say about check-calling turn vs flop makes sense. It's true that his turn range has now become stronger since he called our c-bet and it is the reason I shut down and just wanted a showdown.
For bluffs you gave him  56s(3), 67s(3), KQs(3), but you didn't give him these combos for value hands that made a flush.

Arthur R 11 years, 6 months ago

Also for calling river favours Jof spades in your hand which reduce a lot of value combos in flushes at the villains range

And also for turn play: if u XC this turn your hand is face up as 1 pair hand in opponents eyes


friedpie 11 years, 6 months ago

Any way I did call (my first instinct was to fold vs this particular player and hence why I made the thread) and he did have 88 for a set.

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