AJo IP on J highy drawy board

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AJo IP on J highy drawy board

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $5.22
SB: $8.10
BB: $10.00
UTG: $10.00
MP: $17.87
CO: $11.36 (Hero)
Villain 45/27 AF 1.7 cbet 63 tcbet 18 75hands
Raise OOP 20% (5 cases) FTCBET 57%
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is CO with J A
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BN folds, SB calls $0.25, BB folds
Flop ($0.70) J 9 6
SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB raises to $1.33, Hero calls $0.83
I cbet for both value and protection on this board expecting to get called by draws 9x, worst Jx etc.
After I get raised, I don't love it but vs this type of player I think we can call for sure.
Turn ($3.36) J 9 6 7
SB bets $1.90, Hero calls $1.90
Turn doesn't really change anything unless he would raise flop with 85, T8... which could be true, but I think he is also raising FDs and KJ or QJ.
River ($7.16) J 9 6 7 6
SB bets $4.57 and is all in, Hero folds
I don't think he will bluff his stack off too often with a busted draw, and I don't think he is shoving worst Jx... so I end up folding although we are kinda pot committed.

1)DO you agree flop call to be easy vs this villain?
2)Would you call turn ?
3)Could folding river be a big leak from my part?

8 Comments

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JoINrbs 10 years, 2 months ago

I'd be folding this on the turn I think. The Ad is good on the flop because it gives us equity but becomes bad when we miss a turn diamond because we're blocking villain's AdXd combos. This approach is basically just simplifying how far I call with a bluffcatcher based on which streets its attributes as a bluffcatcher are good on and which streets its attributes as a bluffcatcher are bad on.

I'm sure if we had clairvoyance of opponent's strategy we'd find out that we were not facing 0EV calls on some of the streets and could easily call or fold based on whether it was +/-EV. I tend to think people aren't bluff-heavy enough in these spots so I tend more toward folding but it isn't like I'm certain of this.

Knoxox 10 years, 2 months ago

1) Yeah we have TPTK + a BDFD.
2) I would fold the turn. We block FDs so he either has us crushed or he has ~30% equity with a combo draw.
Villains at these stakes don't raise FDs on the flop very often or they check the turn on a blank. When they raise flop they either have a set/2pair or a combodraw ( pair+FD or SD+FD). I haven't seen a lot of people just raising naked FDs at these stakes.

puchium 10 years, 2 months ago

I would call flop, there are not many sets, OP would've raised. He probably has a FD or a straight draw. I would fold turn because I think it hits his range and he can continue to bluff with missed draws.

River is weird I think it would depend on how many flush draws you think he could have and unfortunately you block the Ad FD. He could have 99, KQs, QTs, KTs, K8s, T8s, J9 and you have around 39% equity, if he has 85s in his range then you have around 35% equity. I think you are getting odds to call if he does shove river with that range.

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