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AJ ip vs x/r ott

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

AJ ip vs x/r ott

BN: $56.06
SB: $38.05
BB: $69.42
UTG: $50 (Hero)
HJ: $50.75
CO: $55.75
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J A
Hero raises to $1.75, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $1.25
Flop ($3.75) 8 8 T (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB calls $2
Turn ($7.75) 8 8 T Q (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.75, BB raises to $9.50, Hero calls $4.75
Should I just fold here readless?
River ($26.75) 8 8 T Q K (2 Players)
BB bets $20, Hero calls $20

13 Comments

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Cozacu 10 years, 6 months ago

Hands like this make me pretty much sick to my stomach. I know in game is way harder, but yes I think folding turn is best vs an unknown (although with reads is a completely different story). Even with your draw and the great price folding could be better simply because you could easily be drawing dead. 

The fact that you had no hands on him (if you are playing regularly with a hud at the same limit) could mean that he is a fish. Fish x/min`raise turn is 95% of the time the nuts :)

kevson180 10 years, 6 months ago

Agreed. An  other argument for folding is our Hand. We block Jxcc and Axss flushdraws that could semibluff here. This, and the fact we easily could be drawing dead leads me to a fold on the turn.

As played, it very hard for him to have a bluff here (clubs got there, and we block Axss for the busted NFD). Maybe I would call ingame (if u call turn and fold this river, your turn call becomes somewhere senseless, because your draw got there), but don't expect to be good that often.

Chael Sonnen 10 years, 6 months ago

It's not a sound plan to draw to a straight or flush on the turn, to then fold when you hit it.
Either call down or bet-fold the turn.

Probably calling between it's unlikely Villian has a boat, so your outs are live and he sometimes has a dominated draw.

Limp Limpson 10 years, 6 months ago

Why do you think that it's unlikely for a villain to have a boat? I see no reason why he shouldnt have TT, QQ, 88 or even T8 in his range. How often do nl50 players do this with dominated draws?

Chael Sonnen 10 years, 6 months ago

QQ 3-bets pre-flop and TT and T8s are only 5 combos total.
I have no idea what most players at 50NL do, but I do know that it makes little sense to bet-call turn and fold on a great river. If he's always got it when he check-raises, your hand should be folded on the turn.

AnFiield. 10 years, 6 months ago

What did BB show up with in the end here? I think more info on the opponent would be required to make an optimal decision on the turn, was he a reg or not? I think for a number of reasons stated its a fold ott, but once you call, no folding river

WotaWaster 10 years, 6 months ago

I think he is questioning whether the turn is a fold, not the river.

When you say readless, do you mean like first hand at table readless as even seeing his vpip/pfr over 20 hands maybe we could make some small assumptions. 

I don't assume an unknowns minraise to be bluffing here but I am not sure we can rule out J9, 8x, Qxc etc. and 100% readless we have to account a small chance to a draw/bluff so think you have to call the turn with no further info.


Sauce123 10 years, 6 months ago

nh

folding turn or river or x flop or x turn are also fine, but I think your line is probably slightly better.  I'd fold river against players who are good enough to know that 8x isn't a good value bet on the river here but who are bad enough to be underbluffing this spot.

KGBeard 10 years, 6 months ago

now I was thinking/calculating in flopzilla (without seeing that I already posted "bet/fold" in this thread as we do improve our equity on the turn and yada yada yada) that maybe betting turn is not the best option as his range will consist of mostly strong hands (vs utg open from the blinds... damn even QQ could be in his pre calling range) , combo draws (with a pair or something else that will not fold that actually give us some reverse implied odds) and few medium (or call em marginal) strength hands that now have pick up some backdoor equity and might not fold to a turn bet. I actually worked in flopzilla this spot vs average tight reg's range in this spot.. so my estimations could be off

What I would like to know is if we are not going to barrel probably the best (semibluffing) card for us... should we cbet the flop in the first place ? tight range does hit it somewhere around 60% (or we could bet little less on the flop ?)

sorry if I'm derailing or if I'm posting a bad analysis ... I'm just trying to get better esp. when it comes to ranges and probability so I play around flopzilla more then usual

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