AA vs triple donk NL50

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

AA vs triple donk NL50

SB: $65.25
BB: $54.80
UTG: $38.25
HJ: $50
CO: $50 (Hero)
BN: $54.75
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A A
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $1.25, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $0.75
Flop ($2.75) 5 4 Q (2 Players)
BB bets $1.65, Hero calls $1.65
Turn ($6.05) 5 4 Q 5 (2 Players)
BB bets $3.60, Hero calls $3.60
River ($13.25) 5 4 Q 5 4 (2 Players)
BB bets $7

So, villain is playin 21/13 and was donking 1/2 so far cauz its only 56 hands...Aggr frequency is only 36% so far...Really confused here cauz Im totally crushed by his value range which could contain and flushes pretty well and 4x/5x occasionally. Esp me blocking the NFD i dont see any bluffs at all in his range and his betsizes look really value heavy...Might he just be blocking 3 streets or is this a fold by the river?

10 Comments

Loading 10 Comments...

Chael Sonnen 11 years, 8 months ago

Raising the flop is an option, but as played, I'd just call here twice. A fish probably bombs a boat. It's much more likely he's making a I-don't-know-what-to-do-with-my-queen bet or a weird bluff.

TheLove_Below 11 years, 8 months ago

i Think you played the flop too passively, And you still have redraw to Nut FD+Overpair equity.  By calling flop/turn, your actually underrepping your A(d)A hand range on RIver spot.

I wouldve raised either flop/Turn, Preferably Flop, since i want to build the pot as early as possible. 

On the river, your losing to everything in VIllains Value range, X(d)Y(d),4X,5X.  Probably a fold.

I don't see Villain betting many QX combos for 3-streets of value, with this run-out, when we actually have more 4X,5X,QX in our hand range than Him.

ItsToothPasteISwear 11 years, 8 months ago

dont see the point in raising the flop, we dont have anything to protect vs, we dont want him folding worse, and we just get shoved on by better. If we had more reads than I can see merit, but vs just an unknown I just call. We have position, use it to our advantage.

Id call river, hes giving us a good price and hes possibly a fish and they play their hands stupidly, he can easily just have a queen he has no idea what to do with or something dumb

SPrince 11 years, 8 months ago
dont see the point in raising the flop, we dont have anything to protect vs, we dont want him folding worse, and we just get shoved on by better.

For value maybe?

If he`s a fish he would take a hand like QxKd to the grave.

I like raising the flop, and setting up stacks on the turn for a river shove.


TheLove_Below 11 years, 8 months ago

Inherently a Donk-betting hand range is unbalanced. You usually see Villain Donk-betting say made FLush, or Set on Flop, in fear of scaring away their opponents. Most players play bad on a Monotone board texture, and they'll usually avert to C/R with their Value range.... 


I consider AA raise as my Default Strategy in a vacuum, since i dont think Villain is donk-bet/folding a high % of the times. A reasonable assumption i can establish for villains donk-betting range, is he's probe-betting with a marginal hand that need's protection, but cant face a strong C-bet OOP.

Likely Probe-betting candidates: QX(d) top pair combodraw,K(d)X, QX Top-pair,66-TT with one diamond.

**) 

1) The reason i like a raise, is i can better define Villains hand range on Flop, while also learn what Villain is donk-betting us with on Monotone flop.

2) I also would like to build pots, thus setting up 3-streets Value with top part of my value range

3) This also balances the times that i bluff on Monotone flops(theoretically speaking).


This is a range i gave Villain, That's DB into us {TcTd,TdTh,TdTs,9c9d,9d9h,9d9s,8c8d,8d8h,8d8s,7c7d,7d7h,7d7s,6c6d,6d6h,6d6s,KQs,Q8s+,AQo,KdQc,KdQh,KdQs,KdJc,KdJh,KdJs,KsJh,KdTc,KdTh,KdTs,KsTd,QTo+}

VS a donk betting range

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt  62,370  games     0.002 secs    31,185,000  games/secBoard: 4d 5d QdDead:   equity win tie      pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 90.127%    90.10% 00.03%         56194       18.00   { AdAs}

Hand 1: 09.873%    09.84% 00.03%          6140       18.00   { TcTd, TdTh, TdTs, 9c9d, 9d9h, 9d9s, 8c8d, 8d8h, 8d8s, 7c7d, 7d7h, 7d7s, 6c6d, 6d6h, 6d6s, KQs, Q8s+, AQo, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs, KsJh, KdTc, KdTh, KdTs, KsTd, QTo+ }

I think for us to raise flop, we can Vary our turn lines

either by 1) Check for deception, thus gaining a RIver street of value

2) Jam over VIllains Turn DB

3) Bet ourselves, to set up stacks.

Based on 100BB scenario, AA is definetly a raise for me, whereas i wouldve probably called with say AA no diamonds... 

Whats your thoughts on this ITPIS?

James Hudson 11 years, 8 months ago
I'm sure we're doing very well versus most people donk betting range when we hold AdAx but assigning villain a range where we have 90% equity seems overly optimistic. The range you assigned villain contains no two pair, sets or flushes... Generally when analyzing these situations I find it helpful to see how we do versus the "worst case scenario" range. If we're doing fine against the previously mentioned range then we know that it's going to be a slam dunk call/raise once we through in some bluffs/ low equity hands. If we  don't have decent equity in the worst case I add some hands to see how many weak hands it takes in villain's range before we can feel comfortable calling or raising. With your method I feel like you're going to be too likely to put money in in a bunch of spots because you've just started with the best case scenario for your hand with no strong hands in villain's range.


James Hudson 11 years, 8 months ago
I think many of the hands you listed make a ton of sense but I think it's really optimistic to assume villain never donks a nutted/near nutted type of hand. I think hands that are likely best but vulnerable make a ton of sense for villain to donk such as 44/55 and the occasional 45ss. Obviously villain is likely to have tons of hands worse than ours but I hate to make the assumption here when stoving ranges that villain never has a strong hand without a decent read on said villain.


Silversana 11 years, 8 months ago

I've seen all sorts of hands take this line. His stats seem more reg-like, which worries me a bit, but my default is to call here and expect to see Qx with a diamond, air, a bare diamond, 66-JJ, and sometimes 4x or 5x.

If you have reads that he might be fishy I probably raise flop and get it in though.

Be the first to add a comment

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy