AA versus regular river spot

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AA versus regular river spot

SB: $5 (Hero)
BB: $14.50
HJ: $8.97
CO: $5.14
BN: $2.37
Preflop ($0.07) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt A A
HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $0.15, BB calls $0.10
Flop ($0.32) Q 2 K (2 Players)
Hero bets $0.19, BB calls $0.19
Turn ($0.70) Q 2 K 2 (2 Players)
Hero bets $0.35, BB calls $0.35
River ($1.40) Q 2 K 2 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

player is 30/20, 200 hands. I should probably bet more on the river. Not a great player, but not super crazy or anything.

How likely is he to bluff this river? I have the A of hearts, which takes away a lot of his nut flush hands. His VPIP is on the higher side, so it's possible he has a bit more of the TJ type of hands, perhaps lower flushes. For some reason, I called, but something about his line didn't make much sense to me. So hence the question: Am I a being a calling station here? 

7 Comments

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Polonium210 10 years, 9 months ago

At first glance this looks a bit of a sigh call situation. But at second glance, I fail to see how he can value bet worse here. I'd hate it, but a disciplined fold here is prudent. There's a ton of hands that got there on this river, and I'd probably die of old age before i finished listing them here.


Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 9 months ago

When the deuce pair you should go bigger to extract from near the top of his range there, KQ (he may also have A2 there). The river is sick, but I would x-c this bet size otr. Since you bet so small ott he may have random 64hh or similar there. 


Polonium210 10 years, 9 months ago

Another thing, having the Ace of hearts here is pretty irrelevant. You block the nut flush, but every single player out there would still bet a Jack high flush in this spot. This is a PLO concept.

In fact, it might even be bad for our cause, as you block AK and AQ, two hands that he could conceivably value bet on the river, two hands that you want to value bet.


Numbers 10 years, 9 months ago
True we could consider turning our hand into a bluff tho. We have KK,QQ in our range as well as all the Axhh combos that he now cant have.


sunrider101 10 years, 9 months ago

Seems like a call, he could be value betting worse hands with that sizing. He almost always has something showdownable here, so there are very few bluffs in his range unless he is turning qx, 9x into a bluff. But he will value cut himself often enough to make this a call.

Turning hand into a bluff is reasonable, but probably not against the average opponent at this stake level.

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