AA value shove on the river? NL25z 6max
Posted by pinky1991
Posted by
pinky1991
posted in
Low Stakes
AA value shove on the river? NL25z 6max
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $37.23
SB: $25.00
BB: $62.58 (Hero)
UTG: $76.78
MP: $32.77
CO: $36.70
SB: $25.00
BB: $62.58 (Hero)
UTG: $76.78
MP: $32.77
CO: $36.70
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BB with
A
A
, , , , , , ,
Flop
($4.60)
3
Q
K
,
Turn
($10.38)
3
Q
K
2
,
River
($23.88)
3
Q
K
2
8
,
Is this too thin on the river? I'm blocking any nut flush draws and trying to get max value from any Kx possibly even Qx hero calls
Small sample on villain (50 hands) but pretty fishy stats 49/22/5 preflop WTSD 35% and W$SD of 17
Loading 17 Comments...
If he has worse, he isnt going to bluff for you (maybe JT) or v-bet for you but fold vs a bet. So unless you are planning to x/fold many times, you should shove or block bet.
What about c/fold the river?.. I mean if he got Kx or Qx hes not going to bluff the river, so only blufs I think he have there is 3combos of JTs (and he also might not bluff them), and if we think he is a fish who has a wide range, then he got there a lot of flash combos even tho you have Ah
As I said, x/calling doesnt make much sense to me its either thin value bet or x/Fold.
Thanks guys. For sizing would you prefer a smaller size on the river or do you think just jamming is ok?
I definitely think he's only calling a shove with a flush or something totally fishy like 88 given his stats lol.
Also I like bigger sizes on flop and turn cus if he is drawing he'd still probly call even if you pot it.
I like jamming OTR too w/ Ah OOP. I do not see much better hands that XC XC and gets river.
I would x/f the river. This seems way too thin. As villain I'm happily folding AK OTR.
I really don't think this villain is ever folding the river with AK? I've played some more hands against him since and initial thoughts have been confirmed station type fish
He still has to call here very wide for this to be a profitable shove. He has to have all KJ or some KJ, some AQ combos and call them all.
If he's really fishy I prefer to bet like 7-8$ and fold to a jam.
Assuming he raises a lot of the two pair/set combos before this point to due to the draw heavy nature of the board. Unrealistic assumption?
He turned up with J3 of hearts in the end but how many heart combos can we give him? suited connectors 45s-J10s (7) J3s+ I guess knowing what he actually had (8) then any suited gappers 107, 108, 96, 97, 85, 86, 74, 75 (8) Total of 23 combos maybe...
For hands that we beat I feel like he is calling us with pretty much all his top pair hands, I might be overestimating how bad he is though, so K9, K10, KJ and AK give us 42 top pair combos alone?
So even without including some AQ combos I feel like I can value bet the river?
Ok if he's bad enough that he shows up with J3hh here we have an easy valueshove here ;)
jamming vs a described villain
xf vs unknowns/regs
Against this villain I think you made wrong sizes, you should make it bigger on the flop and on the turn
Bigger pre, bigger flop, bigger turn. I'm def checking river to fold. I doubt he's calling worse than AK as fish always put you on AK.
fish also dont fold tp
They're also not calling nearly 100bbs with it on this run out either. If you want to bet, it should be a lot smaller.
based on his preflop action,and as you said,he is probably a fish,he may have 99,TT,JJ,QQ,AK,you should bet flop,bet turn,and shove river for value
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