AA thin value bet or easy value bet?
Posted by maco
Posted by
maco
posted in
Low Stakes
AA thin value bet or easy value bet?
UTG: $21.46
HJ: $46 (Hero)
CO: $45.92
BN: $20.75
SB: $25
BB: $24.67
HJ: $46 (Hero)
CO: $45.92
BN: $20.75
SB: $25
BB: $24.67
Preflop
($0.35)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
A
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.75, CO folds, BN calls $0.75, SB folds, BB folds
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.75, CO folds, BN calls $0.75, SB folds, BB folds
Flop
($1.85)
6
3
J
(2 Players)
Hero bets $1.25,
BN calls $1.25
Turn
($4.35)
4
(2 Players)
Hero bets $3.25,
BN calls $3.25
River
($10.85)
8
(2 Players)
Hero bets $6,
BN raises to $15.50,
Hero folds
Final Pot
BN
wins $21.82
,
BN
wins $9.50
I have no reads on the BTN he is playing something like 27/0 on 16 hands.On the river it is an easy value bet I see hands like TT/99/Jx still caling and when he shoves can we call?? I see him doing this only with a better hand and I don't see him doing this with something like KJ.
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However, unless he's playing garbage, I don't think he connects with that board all too well.
27% on stove looks like: 55+,A2s+,K5s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A7o+,K9o+,Q9o+,JTo. Although I doubt he will be playing all of these hands, I think his hand range will probably mirror this, with some hands like connected low suitors as well (Probably less J8s and more of the 54s+ type of hands).
Bet on the flop seems fine given his pre-flop range. When villain flats, I'd narrow his range to either a flush draw, 99,TT, some kind of Top Pair hand, or an OESD (the 45s mentioned prior). I believe most villains at these levels won't flat to trap with sets here (especially with a flush and some straight draw possibilities on the board), which is why I don't have any sets in his range. QQ, KK, and AA are also possible, but I feel most villains would similar to the sets raise those hands to protect their equity (I included half of the combos of each in my range). Also, there aren't any reputable 2 pair hands that would be in his range I don't think.
The 4s hitting the turn isn't the most ideal hand, but I think your turn bet is a fine value bet as this hand is still very strong against his range and you can extract value from the pair hands that are chasing a back-door flush. That said, after he flats the turn bet, I'd assign him a similar range what I had coming through on the flop.
The 8h is mostly a blank on this river and I think that as played check-calling the river is probably the best line, given that I don't believe worse hands than you (the top pair hands, the back-door flush draw hands that missed, etc.) call you nor do I believe that better hands than you in this spot would fold. Given that, turning your hand into a bluff-catcher and check-calling seems like a reasonable response.
The big question in my mind is whether or not villain would raise his made flushes on this turn. I'm not sure either way here nor am I sure how I would react to a raise. Every raise size on the turn (even a min-raise) sets him up very nicely to get it all-in on the river, which would put hero to a tough decision. Given his 27/0 stats, I would probably assume this villain to be on the tight-passive side, which would probably fold me out on the turn or if I wanted to figure out how he was playing, call the turn and call the river (a spewier action).
I'm curious what other people have to say!
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