AA raise on turn
Posted by Ondrej Rysavy
Posted by
Ondrej Rysavy
posted in
Low Stakes
AA raise on turn
CO: $80.15
BN: $69.58
SB: $29.55
BB: $28.29
UTG: $38.79 (Hero)
HJ: $31.62
BN: $69.58
SB: $29.55
BB: $28.29
UTG: $38.79 (Hero)
HJ: $31.62
seat 2: Player2 ( $80.15 USD ) - VPIP: 22, PFR: 17, 3B: 8, AF: 2.5, Hands: 570 ->look like good reg
Preflop
($0.45)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
A
Hero raises to $0.90, HJ folds, CO calls $0.90, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Hero raises to $0.90, HJ folds, CO calls $0.90, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop
($2.25)
6
9
2
(2 Players)
Hero bets $1.95,
CO calls $1.95
Turn
($6.15)
7
(2 Players)
Hero bets $4.80,
CO raises to $16.65,
Hero calls $11.85
A have nuts draw he give me 30% pod odds, i have only 18% for nuts flush with 70bb left in stack
but i think we don´t have 9 outs ->2c is not good at all in case he have set
or we have only 7 outs again flush.
and im OOP and what i do shove river when Club come or check and hope hi will shove?
what about A come and i check/fold?
I have blocker again nuts flushes in his range ,there are only this flush KQ,KJ,QJ,JT,54
but i think we don´t have 9 outs ->2c is not good at all in case he have set
or we have only 7 outs again flush.
and im OOP and what i do shove river when Club come or check and hope hi will shove?
what about A come and i check/fold?
I have blocker again nuts flushes in his range ,there are only this flush KQ,KJ,QJ,JT,54
River
($39.45)
T
(2 Players)
Loading 8 Comments...
On the river, if an ace comes,you're almost always going to be beat. If he had a set, he would've raised the flop, and even if he made a set of sevens, on such a wet board, he would most likely play the pot control approach. So you're going against a very polarized range on the turn, most like against a flush, but maybe a straight, depending of villain's play. If a club comes, I would suggest checking, and hoping he had a high flush made on the turn, and not a straight, which would check back. By checking, you can put in 2 bets instead of 1 by leading, which is ideal with the nuts. Plus, villain is very likely to bet since he has shown aggression on previous street that was club heavy, again making it more likely than not that he has a flush.
I would probably have considered folding the turn, since you're going to be very close to dead is he has a straight, a set, or a flush, and you're getting the wrong odds to draw to the flush yourself. Those odds are even worse if you take into a fact that his range contains a lot of flushes (-2 outs). However, it's different to think of folding and actually doing it, so I can't really bash on you for making the call.
Hope this helped.
I think turn play was bad. You have to ask yourself why you were betting? Were you trying to represent the flush or did you just see AA with nut flush draw?
I think you should've checked turn then evaluated. If bet gave you the right odds (pot + implied odds if any) then call turn and shut down river if you miss. Hope that helped!
if i check turn and he bet pot ,you trying too say me you will fold?
Not likely to fold unless you are playing an opponent who will never bet unless he has a flush and if he bets big (like pot or an over bet). Checking keeps you from getting raised off your equity. Most situations I would check/call turn and hope for club on river.
This hand looks similar to the AhKx hand on A97hh Jh, where hero 3bets then double barrles only to be faced with a turn raise.
We mustn't let hindsight bias affect our decisions. The fact that villain raised does put us in a tough spot, but we have to first evaluate the merits of betting BEFORE we know he will raise.
Since we were UTG, CO can definitely have TT-QQ that can call again OTT. We have the Ac and AA so that removes some of his floats with AK/AQ etc with a club. The SCs portion of his range gets there OTT. And of course all his broadway suited in clubs. other floats might be two overcards with a backdoor flush draw.
We are way ahead of QQ-JJ, TT has a few more outs: 18 combos
versus sets 99/66: 6 combos
We doing 'okay' versus SCs that are two pairs, but we would need to improve: unlikely, if villain is tight these aren't in his range either
We doing poorly versus the made straight or made flush, and our implied odds are negated due to being OOP, unless villain has strictly the King high flush and can't fold: however there are no made straights in his calling range, that leaves: 6 combos of flushes
the fact that the 9c blocks so many of the lesser flush draws is very relevant
Any of his floats we doing exceptional against: crushing but how many combos? if he uses all his backdoor flush draws he can have at least 10, if he uses some of the offsuit AK/AQ/KQ this figure moves closer to 20.
From the numbers above, we have the best have at least half the time if not 2/3rds of the time AND have roughly 66% equity versus reasonable ranges.
Given the turn sizing it looks very polarizing: he is either trying to build the pot quickly OR he is trying to blow you off the pot.
i'm wondering about the merits of checking simply to get floats to bet and maybe QQ-TT bets anyway to protect, so we still win the same but we always get to see the river
Our implied odds aren't negated due to fact of being OOP... simply there's not enough money left behind
On the turn the effective stack will be 31,14 (after OP bet)
Pot odds 2,33:1
Odds to make our hand assuming 15% equity 5,67:1
(5,67-2,33)*(16,65-4,80)=3,34 * 11,85 = 39,6$ to make everytime we hit...
if we call we will have behind 31,14-11,85=19,29$
So if I made the math right, you cannot call because of your stack, not because you are OOP
You didn't agree with my analysis in the other hand (Jh on the turn)? I basically said there was very little value in betting and that I thought it's better to avoid bloating the pot in that spot.
Do we have any relevant stat? I don't care about turn stats, but other stats would be good in order to understand whether Villain is capable of bluffing or just not crushing us in this spot. Maybe he's bluffy on the flop, maybe he like to take strange lines with non nutted hands...
I don't think folding here is a big mistake, at these levels Villains are bluffing very little imo, so if you fold and Villain bluffed you, you don't really care, because this spot happens a few times, and many times that happens he has the goods.
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