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AA in squeezed pot, UTG vs BB

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

AA in squeezed pot, UTG vs BB

BN: $57.29
SB: $82.24
BB: $54 (Hero)
UTG: $94.62
HJ: $297.90
CO: $56.24
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A A
UTG raises to $1.50, HJ calls $1.50, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $6, UTG calls $5, HJ folds
I make it on the larger size given my positional disadvantage.
Flop ($14.75) Q 8 6 (2 Players)
Hero bets $11.50, UTG calls $11.50
Standard flop bet he calls, Preflop we have to have him on a range of 99+ and AQ+ at least.
Turn ($37.75) Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50
Really weird turn bet I dont know w hat we make of this.
River ($38.75) 3 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $76.12
..........? I beat everything but AQ and I have two blockers to it.

10 Comments

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Knoxox 10 years, 6 months ago

If he's unknown then I'll probably fold. He looks fishy with his turnbet and fishes don't often overbetbluff the river. He could also have mistyped his turnbet and to compensate for the loss of value he bombs the river. Tough fold but he probably has atleast KQ.

WotaWaster 10 years, 6 months ago

It's not really an overbet as hero has pretty much a PSB left.  

Can we rule him out having KK for value?  You didn't provide any reads whatsoever and I think as a general rule our hand is just too strong to fold here without reads.   

m3taphysics 10 years, 6 months ago

Sorry, I play zoom. Without a HUD. So most of my reads are based on previous hands or stacksizes/names. I couldn't extract anything from this player.

Ok thanks guys, I really felt like I couldn't fold here. I have been running so bad lately I had to quit after ONLY 200 hands, hitting my stop loss.

Samu Patronen 10 years, 6 months ago

I would call here but I wouldnt be too happy about it. He might have KK. JJ seems unlikely. Without the ace of spades this would be an easier call.

Cozacu 10 years, 6 months ago

Odd spot. I think he could bet that way on turn either by mistake or because he wants to induce a raise. Having the As and his odd bet on turn (draws would probably either bet larger or not bet at all) I think he won't have a FD very often. 

The problem is that by calling you are pretty much saying I don't have Qx. :(

I think the river is a heartbreaking fold. You would need a bit >@33 eq to be good here. 

TsJs,QsJs,TT,JJ, KK = 20 combos 44.4% of range(if he bluffs all these on river)

AQ,KQ,QQ,88,66 =  25 combos 55.6% of range

Hm... the problem here is that I doubt he would bet pot on river with KK and we`re not sure he is turning TT/JJ into a bluff and shove river when he has a good showdown hand.

It is close. In game I would be inclined to fold... but looking at the numbers above, and if villain could be a bit loose and crazy calling could very well be best. I think with good stats on villain we could decide if this is a call or fold on river.


P.S If I would be to put him on one specific hand that would be AsQs ;)


Rachiid 10 years, 6 months ago

AA is a non-negligible part of your bluffcatching range turn and river, and the random small stakes reg knows it. That, plus the fact that he might just 4-bet to get in with his kings make me think that your range is almost always a pure bluffcatcher.

Given the perceived range u gave us, he doesn't have enough bluff to make it a call on the river.

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