AA facing big river bet - Bad fold?

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AA facing big river bet - Bad fold?

50nl zone 100bb eff

UTG opens 3bb
Hero is UTG +1 and 3b to 10bb with AA
UTG calls

Flop: KKJr

Check, check

Turn: 6 (no flush draws)

UTG leads 10bb, Hero calls

River: 2

UTG leads 33bb, hero folds

Thoughts? Looking back Not sure why I folded here, maybe because the pool was playing so tight. Sure villain has Kx in his range but he also has some suited Jx and good bluff candidates like AQ, AT, maybe QT. I think if I call I only need to win about 1/3 of the time too... and AA is top of my range given how I played it. Would Check raising turn be better than calling?

6 Comments

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Shaun Pauwels 4 years, 10 months ago

I would still bet small on flop. There's value from pockets, T9s, Jx hands and the occasional Ax floats. It would also mean we don't have to start bluffcatching on turn and can check back there if we want to. UTG could checkraise and while it is scary for our exact hand we do have AK, KQ, KK, JJ, maybe KJs sometimes. So our range is still super strong.
Then when we check turn behind we call river.

As played we would need to call. Else we'd just fold everything. QQ might be a better candidate to call with. Blocks his most likely Kx hand, doesn't block his AJs, ATs bluffs. But that would still be too few combo's for us to call. You're going to lose a decent amount when you call but likely win often enough.

Pokervillain 4 years, 10 months ago

Thanks, I agree a small bet on flop and checking turns is a good play. As played river call is mandatory. I hate taking nitty lines! lol. BTW he had ATo.

ST3 4 years, 10 months ago

I don't mind checking the flop in practice here. I find villains tend to over buff in these spots when you check back because we always bet a K when we have one right?

As played, definitely need to call but think that's been voiced already. I think your own analysis has it spot on, we block AKo and he has plenty of broadway combos he can turn into a bluff.

Pokervillain 4 years, 10 months ago

ST3: I don't mind checking the flop in practice here. I find villains tend to over buff in these spots when you check back because we always bet a K when we have one right?

My thoughts too, after looking back. He had to think I'd likely bet my Kx there.

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