AA committed vs an almost obvious set
Posted by fidelinos
Posted by
fidelinos
posted in
Low Stakes
AA committed vs an almost obvious set
Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players)
BN: $2.50
SB: $10.46
BB: $6.76
UTG: $6.17
MP: $5.00
CO: $7.66 (Hero)
SB: $10.46
BB: $6.76
UTG: $6.17
MP: $5.00
CO: $7.66 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.07)
Hero is CO with
A
A
, , , , ,
Flop
($1.57)
2
9
Q
, , ,
to be honest V calling here got my instinct alarm.
he is playing 18/2/0 in 44 hands and even though is a small sample can give us some V image
he is playing 18/2/0 in 44 hands and even though is a small sample can give us some V image
Turn
($3.71)
2
9
Q
6
, , ,
is is not doing that with less than 2P+ ,
River
($10.57)
2
9
Q
6
5
Final Pot
MP
wins and shows three of a kind, Nines.
CO lost and shows a pair of Aces.
MP wins $10.13
Rake is $0.44
CO lost and shows a pair of Aces.
MP wins $10.13
Rake is $0.44
I was 100% that we were behind vs this tight ass player.
if it was AQ I see him calling there , but when shoving is a set I guess.
my question is how to handle similar situations.
- I believe there is no discussion of folding for the remain 30bb, right?
- bet turn 1/3 and fold to a shove ? this makes also no sense
- just accept it ?!- that playing 100bb this coolers will happen, and there is nothing to prevent them?
- check turn/ call river?? this makes no sense to me
- how should remain stacks be to let go and fold vs a shove?
thank you
Loading 8 Comments...
One of these statements has to be wrong:
Of course you can fold and save 1/3 of a stack if you're certain enough. Nobody will ever know, and you won't get exploited later. The relevant question is, can you be certain enough?
I doubt you can. This is micro stakes and fishes are everywhere, many hiding behind normal or tight pre flop stats (especially if you're playing Zoom). Even a certified nit can explode in rage and shove something inappropriate for whatever reason compels him in the moment.
If you want a good rule for 100bb stacks, never bet-fold TP+ on the turn in a 3-bet pot after C-betting the flop.
For this hand, you only need to win 15% after calling it off with the pot-odds you're getting. Disregarding rake, if you catch him with a worse hand 16-17% of the time, you're good (to compensate for him sometimes sucking out on the river). He could have played KK like that for all you know.
thank you,
If you want a good rule for 100bb stacks, never bet-fold TP+ on the turn in a 3-bet pot after C-betting the flop.
so you telling me to, check turn or bet / call any shove?
Yes. With 100bb stacks, if you bet TP+ with a standard 1/2 - 2/3 sizing on the turn after a CBet has gone in on the flop, never fold. At this point, 40%+ of your stack has gone in and bet-folding becomes dicey because you can pretty much never have the kind of confidence you need to bet-fold exploitatively.
Think about how few hands you have that are better than TP/overpairs on a dry board in a 3B pot. Bet-folding all TP/overpairs is extremely exploitable and error-prone, since your opponents will routinely stack off with all kinds of TP/overpairs themselves.
I've done a little Odds Oracle sim to show how few 2nd best hands he needs for you to call:
All flopped sets, 1 combos of AQ, 1 combo of KK:
22,99,QQ,AsQs,KsKh
We are 21% vs this range and should call (you need to do a rake adjusted calculation to be sure, though, I was too lazy for that).
AQ and KK are 6 combos each, given the cards that you see. Can you be that certain that he doesn't show up with those 1 time in 6? Or occasionally with something else that you beat?
Think about a near worst case scenario, equilibrium and one scenario better than equilibrium. What do you estimate the EV for each of those to be for calling? What frequency does villain need to play the worst case scenario to fold this?
I made a near worst case scenario by giving villain all 22, 66 and 99, and 15% of AQs, AQo, QQ and KK. With those assumptions you have a +EV call of 8bb. If you only give villain sets your call is -20bb. At equilibrium your call is winning many times more than that and villain could even play more aggro/spewy.
So this is a very +EV call even though it sucks that and will lose almost 80% of the time. https://youtu.be/R2eFoV3-Rx8
Thank you both for the great analysis !
make sense
@ Kalupso,
been in the negative side to be honest - thanks for the video
Question :
Is it different if he shoved or made a big raise on flop?
Could we just fold exploitable there?
cool discussion :D
If he X/shove the flop : the odd is around 33% so it could gives us an incentive to fold but I believe that a X/shove range tend to be more aggro-spewy than a X/sized-raise range.
So I wouldn't considering folding against a X/shove but thinking about it against a X/sized-raise
Be the first to add a comment