AA calling river raise
Posted by Cozacu
Posted by
Cozacu
posted in
Low Stakes
AA calling river raise
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
MP: $10.00
CO: $15.02
BN: $16.69
SB: $10.23
BB: $17.64
UTG: $21.28 (Hero)
CO: $15.02
BN: $16.69
SB: $10.23
BB: $17.64
UTG: $21.28 (Hero)
Villain 29/24 AF 2.6 cbet 56 tbcet 43 riveragrr 57 FTCBET 20% 12.8% - 3bet 160hands
IP RAISE cbet 25% OOP raise cbet 18%
He was playing really aggro vs me... raising flops, barreling a ton IP.
IP RAISE cbet 25% OOP raise cbet 18%
He was playing really aggro vs me... raising flops, barreling a ton IP.
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is UTG with
A
A
, ,
Flop
($0.75)
2
3
6
,
On flop I go with my standard sized cbet. I think I should have gone bigger simply because he is almost never folding to cbets.
Turn
($1.65)
2
3
6
T
,
On turn I decide that if I bet again he might fold fairly often... so I better let him barrel off his floats or let him hit a pair on River. I`m not concerned of missing value from his mid pairs because I`m expecting him to fire all of those as well.
I`m seriously shocked to see the check behind.
I`m seriously shocked to see the check behind.
River
($1.65)
2
3
6
T
2
, ,
River I go for value, thinking he might have checked that mid pair after-all...
..after the raise (instant raise) Im thinking he might fold 22,33 PF... he can't really have 2x but A2 which Im heavily blocking so the only real hands that beat us that he might have would be 66 or TT (if he checks those on turn).
...I just thought he is playing the aggro bad ass with me again thinking I`m folding river (my overall WTSD is @26 and my hand can look weak because of my check on turn)
1)Do you agree with my turn plan to check/call?
2)Do you agree with river reasoning and the call?
Loading 16 Comments...
I like that you checked at some point given your reads and stats. I don't really want to be raised with only a one pair hand, so I think I would be checking turn, maybe checking flop if I think he can triple barrel off.
OTR, kinda strange, since the board didn't pair by the turn his sets are still vulnerable so I really don't expect him to check those back. So this looks like 2x only, the thing is like you said, we block A2, so he only has 2 combos of those. I call I guess, maybe he thinks our turn checks was weak and is looking to push you a hand or something,
I prefer bet bet x/c. He probably calls turn again with most of his flop continuing range, which consists of mid pairs and straight draws. OTR he may decide to bluff his missed draws or try to value bet a weaker pair.
There aren't that many draws that could call turn (if any)... 87 and 89 are got shots that I don't think he would call PF (given positions), same story about 45. And even if he calls these PF I doubt he would call a 2/3 sized turn bet.
I would argue that checking turn is better than betting especially vs this aggro villain.
On this board in these positions AA is very strong, not just because hands like 22 and 33 are unlikely to be in ranges but also because hands like JJ and QQ make up a much larger portion of villain's range than they would in other positions. Especially against someone who I had a read was calling a lot I would be going for three streets of value here. While we make a lot of second bets against villain's floats with this line we lose a lot of third bets against villain's JJ QQ stuff and I consider that to be a bigger deal here.
JJ/QQ is just a small part of his range... and I believe this villain would easily fire those on turn and river on this run out. So I don't think we`re losing value from those hands.
Vs standard station fish this is ofc an easy bet bet bet.
I wouldn't expect this villain to bet turn and river with JJ/QQ, I'd be expecting him to bet one street and check one. If he bets both we certainly have less incentive to be betting but still tons of hands to get value from.
Which are ? What other hands do you think are capable of calling 3 str?
Betting gets us more value from hands like 99 as well because these hands are extremely likely to check back and less likely to call a river bet.
He doesn't really have a lot of hands in his range that aren't like QQ or 99 in my opinion. He has 3 TTs we care about and he may have some AK sort of stuff which is pretty comparable to 99. If he has more lower pps he's increasing how many hands like TT he has but also how many hands like 99 he has.
He may have a few hands like KQ which are the only hands it's exciting to check turn against imo.
Betting turn seems like a good option because majority of his range is pretty much medium pp (44,55,77-99) probably, and to get maximum value from those I believe we should bet the turn. You block a bunch of a-highs which are like his weaker floats.
Is he ever calling with those river as well? If not we are only getting two streets of value anyway and by checking we let him play his agro style and bluff with trash.
As played, are you calling river?
you can still get value from those PP on the river after checking back the turn.
I think the turn play is great. he might have some KJ KQ QJ here, if you bet turn he might fold those, I would bet turn on any JQK. He could have some PP here too but you can still get value from those on the river. It is possible for you to bluff river on any JQK so he might just call with his 99 / 88 / 77 / 55. AT the rare occasions he has that. and some times JJ QQ too.
I would call river, I think the 2 is a decent card for you, now a set is less probable. It is possible that he could play JJ QQ KK this way too. and he has been playing aggro vs you, it's not a scary board, near top of your range.
At 10nl I don't think you're seeing a lot of bluffs here when you call the river + there aren't a lot of missed draws. It's very close but I doubt that you're seeing a lot of QQ-JJ here so I'm probably folding even though it's highly exploitable.
But I would probably x/c the flop & call down if I know he's playing really aggro against me.
Given your read, I think the turn check is ok and I'd call the river because there is only few hands that you loose to.
Vs standard reg without read, Im betting the turn to balance for the time I follow thru with my bluff on an overcard turn.
I would play the same way. Never folding the river, since he seems very aggro + We checked turn. So, i would expect that he does what he did in a high % of times. Its a check for value hand.
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