A9s on BB 100NL 6Max Zoom
Posted by CombatCarl
Posted by
CombatCarl
posted in
Low Stakes
A9s on BB 100NL 6Max Zoom
BN: $41.50
SB: $186.98
BB: $110.76 (Hero)
UTG: $108.44
HJ: $85
CO: $148.10
SB: $186.98
BB: $110.76 (Hero)
UTG: $108.44
HJ: $85
CO: $148.10
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
9
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $2.50, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $1.50
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $2.50, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $1.50
Flop
($5.50)
T
7
4
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
CO bets $3.50,
Hero calls $3.50
Turn
($12.50)
T
7
4
Q
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
CO bets $9.50,
Hero calls $9.50
River
($31.50)
T
7
4
Q
Q
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
CO bets $22.50,
Hero calls $22.50
He is 22/17/af14.0/3bet4.7 103 hands
Cbet F 60 T 100 R 100 AF F 8 T 14 R 3 WTSD 18 WWSF 55
We could CR on flop but he is aggressive so I opted to just call again on turn thinking he is gonna fire on cards that makes my hand.
The question is river. It's going well as planned because he is firing again. So, my read is that he has more than enough air/bluff in TBing on this board texture. He probably would VB his made hands as well such as Qx/flush/JJ/KK/AA and TT/77/44.
Should we actually consider CR on river?
Loading 6 Comments...
First off, preflop, you could make an argument about folding the A9s, because it's going to be difficult to play against such an aggressive opponent OOP, and because of domination issues. That being said, I still think this can be a profitable spot if you play it correctly (which you did, IMO), and I would have called as well.
Agreed with the flop and turn play, not much to say that you didn't mention already.
On the river, you have to look at the number of hands he would value bet and call off that are worst than you, compared to the ones that beat you. Given he is so aggressive, I don't think he would fold a flush after semi-bluffing the entire way (he would probably rationalize a call and think you have Qx). Same thing goes for all of the Qx hands in his range, when he gets a set on the river, I think he'll call your raise without 3betting you, which is great for your equity. However, you're going to get reraised by TT, 77,44 and bluffs, and I believe JJ will fold to a raise (maybe AA and KK as well, I'm not sure), meaning that against those hands, you would either put yourself at risk of a very tough spot (do you call his shove if he 3bets?), or gain nothing by raising because he would fold the worst hand.
Due to the fact that there are more hands that he folds (no point in reraising) or 3bets (hands that beat you) than hands that call and you beat, I'd suggest you just call. It's a really tight spot, and after thinking about this I'm still not 100% sure, but I'd rather be assured to get to showdown than give the possibility to reraise and put me in a tough spot to such an aggressive opponent. If he did reraise, I think you would be forced to fold, even though I wouldn't put it past him to bluff shove the river.
All in all, I think you played the hand very well, and it's good that you're not just moving past an interesting spot just because you won the hand. Props to you.
I'm aware that this wasn't a very clear an elaborate answer (I'm still not 100% sure of my decision), but I still hope it helped you make heads or tails of the situation.
Thanks, I like the argument regarding the range that bet/folds and the range that bet/calls and the range that bet/shoves.
Against a normal TAG, I think our NF is at the very bottom of our river CR range. In fact, most regulars will not CR this hand on river against my TB. Because this villain is very aggressive, the range that bet/folds(AK/AJ/KJ) likely outweighs the other two ranges.
I was thinking about the flip side of his aggression which would be his ability to value bet thinly but it doesn't really define his calling range against a river CR. Not to mention if I was to be 3bet/shoved on river then that will confuse the hell out of me because he is so aggressive.
Yeah, check/call on river seems good.
I don't think this is true. Let's break down villain's value range into what bet/calls and bet/raises given the assumptions in your post about what he does with his range:
b/r: QQ, TT (sometimes checks flop?), QT, 77, 44 for a total of 1+3+6+3+3=16 combos
b/c: AA(50%), KK(50%), AQ, KQ, QJ, Q9s, KdJd, KdTd, JdTd, Jd8d, 8d6d, 6d5d for a total of .5(3)+.5(6)+6+8+8+2+1+1+1+1+1+1=34.5 combos
Given this analysis, it looks like a pretty clear raise to me.
You have to add combos that he bets/folds and we beat. Against those hands, you should not raise, since you gain nothing from it and you would be giving him the opportunity to raise.
More importantly, he will be 3bet bluffing an important % of his river range, since there is still an effective stack of $95 on the river, giving him space to do so. This is where I could not decide how many bluff combos to give him in this spot, but given his AF of 14, I think he will be doing so quite often, justifying the fold.
Against hands we're ahead of we should be indifferent to raising or calling. For it to be worse for us to call than to raise against these hands we would have to be giving villain a profitable bluff 3-bet spot, which is something we can prevent from happening by folding a GTO portion of our range to a shove. Therefore I think it's appropriate to only consider villain's value hands that call or raise when conducting this analysis (and balancing value hands with bluffs as appropriate).
That said, I did oversimplify things, as we lose even more to the hands that beat us than the additional amount we put in the pot when we raise instead of call. Assuming villain shoves all that beats us (44 and 77 seem a little thin for value, but let's keep them in the shoving range for now), we can calculate our overall EV as follows:
Let's say we raise $30, leaving $42.50 behind (villain has x total combos):
-EV of raising vs. villain's b/c range instead of calling: $30*34.5/x=1035/x
-EV or raising vs. villain's b/r range instead of calling and then calling a shove (assuming villain is balanced and has 42.5/(31.5+22.5*2+30*2+42.5*2)=19.2% bluffs=3.8 combos, which would make EV folding=EV calling): -$72.5*16/x+72.5*3.8/x=-884.5/x
Total EV of raising=(1035-884.5)/x=150.5/x>0, so I still think it's a pretty clear raise. For this not to be a raise I think villain would have to be massively outplaying us when he shoves, e.g. have approx. <10% bluffs if we call his shove. If villain calls 44 or 77 this becomes even more of a raise.
I think it makes sense to think about this spot like this, but if you still disagree, NoHubris, I'd be interested to hear why.
No, I don't disagree, I misunderstood the situation and how to calculate it's odds. Thanks for clearing it up, as I said earlier, I wasn't 100% sure of my answer. Again, thank you for patiently explaining it to me :).
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