A7s vs MP
Posted by fidelinos
Posted by
fidelinos
posted in
Low Stakes
A7s vs MP
Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players)
BN: $5.00
SB: $0.98
BB: $9.53 (Hero)
UTG: $6.52
MP: $5.00
CO: $3.47
SB: $0.98
BB: $9.53 (Hero)
UTG: $6.52
MP: $5.00
CO: $3.47
Preflop
($0.07)
Hero is BB with
7
A
, , ,
Flop
($0.32)
7
T
6
, , , , ,
Turn
($11.33)
7
T
6
6
River
($11.33)
7
T
6
6
3
the idea of pushing flop should be FE right?
so basically since villain 3bets flop my FE goes south right?
So shoving there is not such a good move + vs his 3betflop we are behind right?
better play should be call the 3b and adjust on turn card right?
one more time: my shove there is way out of line since we will be behind mp's 3b range , and since we shove to have some FE and we know he is not willing to do so we played the hand super wrong. right?
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You have so much equity vs his range that reason for pushing flop is to realize your equity (see all cards). You don't want to call here, face K turn, jam, and having to fold.
You can also just call the flop because you can't really can't much worse to call (value), or much better to fold (bluff), and dont need much protection (get hands with equity to fold). You can use this hand to protect your callingrange on the flop and call raise some draws with less showdown value.
Thank you for your comment. Second part got me confused though. Vs his 3bet on this flop don't see how we are ahead. Run it on EC and vs over pair or set we are behind even a little but behind.
@ imurmommy - Iam not sure but even if we call the flop after the 4b its still close and we might have to call river due odds.
on the flop u can 3b and call i think both options are fine. only 3b little bit smaller around 0,65.
In that case u can call his 4b and play turns. if u dont improve fold turn unless u get the odds to call. When improved ur prob get his stack.
Also to get it in on the flop is never that bad against his range, i just think there a some lines wich would get u a better ev.
thewizz to get it in on the flop vs his 3bet we are behind, so its not the best move I guess. this is the point of my post. That even tho it looks good, if we don't have Fold E, our push is not right. Do you agree with that?
"only 3b little bit smaller around 0,65.
In that case u can call his 4b and play turns. if u dont improve fold"
It would be a gross mistake to fold Turn after calling the 4B Flop if we 3B him. Stack Leverage Point is reached on flop than, we are 100BB, you got equity go with it. You can't make a bigger mistake than folding Turn after 3B Flop and call his 4B.
that makes no sense at all. U know nothing about the sizing of the 4bet and turn bet. so how can u say its a gross mistake?
I think there better ways to play the hand, but it depends how large the turn bet is. if hero makes his 3b 0,65 and villian 4b to 1,60 we have to call flop right, and if he shoves turn we have to fold our like 30% equity cause we dont getting the right odds. so it all depends on how large his turn bet is.
Just the playability is better when u 3b less, now when he 4b hes basically commits itself so u cant do anything to let him fold turns even when the turn is a 8x 9x for example.
You base all you're assumptions on a hypothetical 4B sizing from V. That is not because WE 3B smaller that HE will 4B smaller. Of course IF Hero's intention is to play a Turn his 3B sizing is bad in this particular case. We all can see clearly the theory behind it, but as played Stack Leveraging Point is reached Flop. Any players failing to recognize that is probably the one who will make the biggest mistake with his decision going further in the hand because of shallow stack and the fact that he neglect one of the key point in the hand.
By the way if we give a solid range for V when he 4B we still got around 45% equity which make the shove profitable even if V doesn't fold anything in his 4B range flop when we shove.
How does it makes the shove profitable if we are behind by 5% on the flip? In the long run we lose - no?
I'll post analysis. Simply put its basic math and pot odds with your equity + the money already in the pot.
I think you're better to c/call the flop since we have so much equity with the nut flush draw and a pair. When we c/raise iit puts us in a tough spot due to SPR since if we call villains re-raise on the flop, chances are villain is jamming any non diamond turn which puts us way behind their flop raising range. If we GII on the flop we're still way behind villains range with a pair of 7's. I'm not sure if we can c/raise A7 here. Maybe A7cc or ss but that might be a little thin.
"When we c/raise iit puts us in a tough spot due to SPR"
Thats exactly what i was mentioning regarding the proposition of "x/r smaller to be able to call a 4B and play Turn"
We don't care about the x/r sizing since as soon as we x/r we cross Stack Leveraging Point which make us make a terrible mistake by folding at any future point in the hand.
x/c flop imo. I'd use worse NFD as x/r on the flop.
thewizz xa we really fold any turn?
Aren't we just calling any turn?
Isn't the reason for shoving flop? - that we will not fold any turn?
fidelinos lets say MP open raise with a fairly standard MP opening range which could be this one:
On flop let's assume V is betting OverP, TP, Sets, 2 Overs+BDFD, GS+FD so he would bet those:
We 3B and he 4B with very little bluffs those being the strongest of them so his 4B range here could be :
Vs that Range we have :
So lets say we shove. We are 100BB effective. there is 62.2BB in the pot after V 4B us. He got 61BB left, so that is what we are gonna shove into the 62.2BB pot.
As you can see, if the break even percentage is below 0% than it is always profitable to shove.
Let's say V 4B us with the Nuts only and OverP, so that would be straights, sets and over pairs.
We have :
It is still profitable to shove:
So those advocating for a smaller 3B raise to play the Turn and fold are not understanding that the leverage point has already been crossed flop and thus this is the point where we have the best equity to shove our money into the pot. If we were super deep things would change since there would be room to maneuver Turn and River to compensate when we make a bad call but at 100BB those advocating for the small 3B don't understand leverage point and how close equity run in this game.
These is great stuff, thank you for your analysis. When I ran it in my EC vs his nuts results were lower I think. Will do it again as soon as I get to my pc.
What program is this that gives us profitability of a shove?
Thank you once more
nice graphic.
So if we shove flop we will win how much bb ?
now for example. we 3b lower on flop ( preflop raise 0,15 hero call 0,15 )
Flop we 3b 0,65, villain 4b 1,65 we call. the pot = 3,60 what gaves villian a stack of 3,20 left. We have around 30% to make the best hand on the turn. So on the turn:
70% we fold turn and lose 36bb ( cause if he shove blank turn we cant call )
30% of the time we hit and win 100 bb
If my calculation is good we win around 5bb on this play.
Of course he could fold on a dimond turn , and we could mayby could bluff on 8x 9x
Iam dont recomend this play or anything, but i think its a little bit closer then u think it is.
Now its also worst case senario if he 4b. all others plays he make we win more then 5bb
Sorry double post.
I have seen many people 3 bet fold flops at this stake so you cant say that you have 0 fe for sure. But honestly there are a lot of ways to play this hand but you really cant go too wrong with just going with it on the flop.
I saw a similar hand in hsp with dwan and greenstein where dwan piled it in on the flop with a pair and flush draw vs barrys AA. I believe it was a 3 bet pot and although stacks were deeper the sprs were probably similar due to the pot being inflated pre. And fwiw dwan was slightly ahead there vs barrys specific hand.
Terrible ranges. Idea is fine.
You can call flop or raise and I doubt it makes much of a difference. Think donking is also somewhat reasonable otf.
Mistake is in the logic of "just calling" when he 3b. Because there is so much dead money in the pot and we are essentially never folding any turn w/ current stack depth we might as well ship the nickels on the flop. That being said, the deeper we are the more incentive we have to go ahead and flat the 3b rather than 4b. We can be a 40-60 dog, but due to the dead money in the pot at our decision point getting it in "behind" is still +EV at that point because although we're losing "60%" of what we put in @ that point we're winning 40% of what is already in the pot.
What do you mean by terrible ranges ?
Id be happy check calling to river, you have tons of other flush combos to put in your RR range on flop.
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