A5o: Call river in a 3bet pot after chb TP on the flop? (NL 100)
Posted by jonzocker
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jonzocker
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A5o: Call river in a 3bet pot after chb TP on the flop? (NL 100)
BB: Player3: 107.31
HJ: Player6: 41.50
CO: Hero: 101
BN: Player10: 100
Player1 folds, Player1 raises to 2.50, Hero raises to 8, Player1 calls 6
Villain is a reg I play daily and plays overall tight. 22/19, 9% 3bet and 68% F2 3bet. He is oR 43% from the SB, folding 75%(40) to 3bet and 4bets 6% in this position.
Given that I assume his oR/c range looks like this:
Sice I do not get 3 street of value with my hand I think a chb is fine.
On the turn its not to great, when he starts betting, but I guess have to call.
His range contain probably all TPs+ and FDs:
On the river his betsizing is interesting. I do not think that he is ever betting AJ/ATs that big and therefore he is repping the flushes/sets/some AQ combos he did not 4bet and his busted draws. He is probably not betting his busted QX FD combos and not always the other bluffs. I need 31% Equity and vs an realistic range I do not get that much.
What do you think?
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- SB = 70.59% { 88, 66, AQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, KcJc, QsJs, KsTs, KcTc, QsTs, JsTs, JcTc, Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s }
- BB = 29.41% { A5o }
This is the range I would give villain on the river if he/she is playing somewhat well; with a balance of 13 value combos and 5 bluffing combos.
it is relatively difficult to decipher what villains range will look like on the river, as his 4bet range is going to be largely unknown, i.e. we don't know if he is 4betting all his AQo combos, or if he 4bets offsuit combos and calls suited combos of broadways, etc.
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Realistically, you need to think about all the hands that you arrive at the river with in this situation, i.e what hands you 3bet and check this flop, then call turn Vs a bet of this size.
Then you can visualise your entire river range, in order to see what section A5o falls into, i.e. low/mid/top of your range. From this knowledge you can then decide whether you will indeed be folding too much if you are folding A5o in this spot.
If this is the case, then you need to create a better strategy for your flop betting/checking range, to ensure that you will be able to take the heat from turn and river barrels with different sub sections of your range that you arrive on the river with.
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I am pretty tired right now, and may of worded some parts of this weirdly or badly, but if you don't understand a part of what I have said, just let me know and I will try make my point clearer.
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however I do want to add that, Vs a villain that is overfolding preflop to 3bets, as in this situation I believe that 3betting A5o might not be that great of a strategy, when you are called you are likely dominated, and you only have one relevant card blocker to discourage 4bets, therefore villain will still have an abundance of Ax hands he can 4bet you with.
Personally I would rather choose random suited hands that have less domination issues and more playability post flop Vs this player types calling range Vs a 3bet.
Flatting and playing a pot in position with a greater SPR, should yeild a greater profit and allow you to use your edge given that the pot is smaller.
ignore the Qsx combos in the initial range shown, equity and number of combos are still the same,
SB 70.59% { 88, 66, AQs, AsJs, KsJs, KcJc, KsTs, KcTc, JsTs, JcTc, Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s }
BB 29.41% { A5o }
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