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A bluff?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

A bluff?

BB: $18.01
UTG: $28.09
HJ: $2.46
CO: $16.87
BN: $10.03 (Hero)
SB: $4.89
Preflop ($0.15) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A J
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.30, SB folds, BB calls $0.20
Flop ($0.65) A 4 8 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.48, BB raises to $1.04, Hero calls $0.56
He Check Raise Flop 9%, so I think he could have a FD here most of the time, so I call.
Turn ($2.73) 3 (2 Players)
BB bets $1.36, Hero calls $1.36
River ($5.45) T (2 Players)
BB bets $4.08
He's stats : 21/ 11/ 1.9

Are you calling this river bet? It looks like a bluff for me, maybe a missed draw. If he has a strong hand (like a set) why doesn't bet bigger on the turn to increase the pot size!?

What's your opinion?

3 Comments

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imSiankO 12 years, 3 months ago
from his stats, he doesnt look that aggro at all.. again please say the hand sample as it could be meaningless if it's too small.

definitely folding river with reads that i have right now.. if he's bluffing, i don't expect him to bet so big.
But you ask yourself the right question on the turn, why wouldn't he bet bigger if he has a value hand like a set, his line looks really weird.. without reads on him i'm just folding but i'm basing my decision heavily on the stats you gave plus the fact his line doesn't make that much sense.. but i rarely if ever caught people bluffing the river with busted draws, so strong in the past at this limit.
james 12 years, 3 months ago
Stats are soooooo important here. Vs almost everyone this seems like a fold on the river and against a lot of people you can probably just fold the turn. Most villains probably don't expect you to fold Ax after you call the flop check raise and will just give up on the turn a decent amount and almost certainly won't bluff river. Also, a flop check raise of 9 isn't particularly high.

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