99 call 3bet, flopped set auf semi wet board.
Posted by zorgar
Posted by
zorgar
posted in
Low Stakes
99 call 3bet, flopped set auf semi wet board.
SB: $4.65
BB: $15.58
UTG: $10.00
MP: $9.66
CO: $10.10 (Hero)
Bu is unkown reg.
My though process on the flop was that if i checkraise all sets here is that my calling range gets really weak and i probably dont even have 44s in my range anyways, so i decided to call. This is also assuming that he cbets pretty wide with that small sizing. On the turn my perceived range is a lot stronger but he obviously also has some of high onecardflushdraws in his range that play like this and some random junk that 2-paired and the set of queens. I really dont know what to do on the turn. Should i just checkshove and hope that he calls his onepair+flushdraw hands here or just call?
On the river i fear that he might check behind kk-aa (is that even realistic?) and decide to just shove. Would a checkcall have been better here? I obviously dont lose value against any queen or random straights and flushes, i think.
The hand was pretty hard for me because every single card seemed to change the board so much that i couldnt keep track of my ranges at all.
Thanks for the help.
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River lead is pretty bad imo, because you can't represent bluffs. What bluffs can you have here? Pretty much none. Villain will most likely fold his AA/KK. I would just check and let him bluff occasionally, more valuable than the possible tiny extra value we get by leading.
Small lead might work though, like 1/3 potsize.
I havent even thought about a very small lead on the river. Tbh i think thats a very good idea because most of his bluffcatchers are very strong in absolute handstrength and might make him call.
Do you think there is a chance that he just calls his straights (or even flushes) on the river against a small bet?
Yeah that is one of the problems with leading (small). There's also the fact that we probably don't have bluffs and we don't want to bluff with this line, so I think I would prefer checking over leading with any sizing. Smaller lead better than big though.
Well, i guess you could play 9Xcc that way, some Qx too so I wouldn't say you're never being called by worse hands. That being said i'm really not sure about the correct theorical way to play your hand ... GIven the fact we don't block any legitimate bluffing hands (Tx, clubs) I guess i would have checked the river.
I think a c/r on the flop is best. You're going to have a ton of semi bluffs/combo draws on this board and overpairs are never folding. Your balance is fine if you're check raising all strong draws and sets here, although I'm not sure if that's really important at 10nl.
As played, I think you can't just lead shove, because if you were thinking about balance OTF, maybe you should think about your leading range OTR (Which is pure value hands).
You are probably right, my river shoving range is probably extremely value heavy.
Maybe something to start incorporating is a plan for the hand instead of just thinking about the flop. Like, say you wanted to get the most value from his AA, KK, and realized that a lot of turns kill your action. Your goal then would be to get as much money in the middle as quickly as possible.
Just something to consider :)
I'd check/jam the turn tbh.
I dont think that villain is too likely to bluff otr once we xC F/T+I dont think that he is likely to valuebet worse, like I'd expect a xb even on brick rivers.
We can rep AcJx or smth too. I mean its thin and def exploitative (hoping for a tilted call from AcKx or AcAx), but I dont think that we gain anything by calling.
Leading river is pointless imo, he is way too likely to just call with only the hands he'd be betting with anyway/
I doubt that we have over 50% equity versus villains calling range. Villain can also bluff if we just call, AT/AK being most likely ones that he bluffs with. If you think about it, villains betting range on the turn should be pretty polarized, like AA/KK might even check, it is already pretty scary board for him if he has like KK without a club. I think our shoving range should be more polarized too (straight or better for value, bluff with AcJx type of stuff).
Like I wouldn't say that we don't gain anything by calling: we keep his AK/AT bluffs in, and we also save money on some bad runouts where villain is too likely to have the best hand.
I would x/r the flop. We have some bluffs here so we also need some valueraises.
OTF, I think you can mix flop x/r and x/c. Both lines have they benefits. You actually dont have a very effective bluff range here, so I prefer x/calling most of the time to protect Jx from being overbetted.
OTT, the only flushes you have are AcTc and Tc9c, assuming you call those hands preflop (some players 4bet bluff them). Because of that fact, opponent has an easy play against you, he will bet top of his range with polarized bluffs (~35-40% of the time he bets) and check pairs. So I dont see a lot of value jamming 9s9h here against such range. 99 with club blocker is a better jam. Also since opponent will check a lot OTT, leading is an option here, but again, you dont have nut combos and opponent have all of them, so be careful, you might valuetown yourself occasionally.
OTR, leading with 99 is viable option, but QJ and JJ are better as lead, and you still need some x/calling range combos to be strong. Also dont forget that since you leading range is quite transparent, unless you expect opponent to call too much, you need some bluffs here and its very hard to find them OTR. But you dont need them against someone who never fold flush. Otherwise, you may find TcTx combos surprisingly useful as a bluff. Strangely enough, KdQd is even better river bluff, blocking 1 QQ combo, although I wouldnt go this far into balance shenanigans.
Thanks for the effort of writing all of this out. I appreciate your help a lot. Im still dazzled by how someone could effectively use this in the short amount of time you have for the hand. I already have trouble several steps before the ones you explained.
Thanks
NP. I use piosolver software to make a quick look on what turn&river optimal play might look like. Thus, any outcome result need to be treated with caution because of 2 reasons. 1)it depends on preflop and flop ranges a lot, 2)its just a "skeleton" for constructing your play, since you can easily modify solver's strategy to win more $ exploiting expected population weaknesses, rather then trying to play optimal in spots where its not needed. So I suggest you try this software yourself and play with ranges.
As others have mentioned the river shove looks very nutted, In my mind you only have AcJx turning itself into a bluff which isn't very believable as there are so few combo's. Also, for villain to call you force him to have the flush as a lot of worse made hands are going to fold vs your range AQ/AJ, KK+ and T8s if he 3bets light.
Either a small lead, or, a c/c i think gets him to bluff some AcXx combos as he has a blocker, also a QX hand might make a thin value bet since it gets the near perfect run out.
I would XR the flop. As played, I see no reason to lead the R.
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