66 flop c-bet decision $2/4 NLH 6-max Bovada
Posted by Chris Bowling
Posted by Chris Bowling posted in Mid Stakes
66 flop c-bet decision $2/4 NLH 6-max Bovada
MP+2: PLR_5100588TL: $410.00
CO: PLR_1390937HZ: $194.00
BN: PLR_4731264FT: $398.00
SB: PLR_1530052HN: $437.60
BB: PLR_5806471IC: $396.00
UTG: PLR_8525756BD: $516.00
UTG+1: PLR_2706836MK: $407.10
MP: Hero: $469.50 (Hero)
I think this is a very interesting spot. I feel like villain has something like this range + a little wider, but not too much wider because I did open utg+2.
QQ-22,AKo-AQo,AJs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs
Vs this range, Hero has 54.40% equity.
Basically I think that is a lot of equity for Hero to c/f, so I don't really want to c/f. So let's look at the other options. If Hero bets, you get villain to fold broadways which you have 24% equity vs or smaller pp's that you are crushing. You get called by 9 combos of sets and 24 combos of QQ-99 which is approximately 32% of his range. So basically if you bet the flop, you make yourself isolated with better hands a whole lot. If you c/c, then villain still has 45.6% equity vs you assuming he's betting all hands. He might be checking back 55-33 and some A high, which hurts Hero planning to c/c. Also, even though Hero has 54% equity right now, the amount of Realizable equity for Hero is probably much lower. It will be hard for Hero to continue to a turn bet on almost any card. So, therefore, I'm now thinking this hand should just be a c/f. C/r'ing seems alright if you think villain is capable of folding an overpair some portion to a turn bet, but c'r'ing doesn't seem too attractive for the same reasons I don't care for betting. What do you guys think?
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