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65s NL25

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65s NL25

Hi.

http://weaktight.com/7383184

I have only 10 hands on villain.. I only called his raise on the flop, because even though I've got monster draw, It's only pair of 5s, so I don't want to get into shove mode. Turn is kinda weird. Now I've got two pairs with a flush draw, but every 4 makes a straight. What are you doing on this card? Call? Fold? Let me know.

Regards.

4 Comments

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sauloCosta10 10 years, 1 month ago

This is a pot odds problem...figure out your equity, the pot odds you are getting and thats it. About his range, I've seen some player do this with AA and KK, but its more likely he has a set or straight, and sometimes 2p. Withou doing the math I think you have enough equity to call.
EDIT: maybe not hehe I think I misread the pot size, you need 41% equity to make the call and probably you dont have that much. If you are already ahead a certain amount of the time (which happens when he has a weaker 2p or AA and KK) maybe you can call but if you are always behind when making the call I dont think so.

taaazz 10 years, 1 month ago

No way I'm folding this. I think you'll run into overplayed overpair or a sick bluff enough of the time to make the call.

Lewis Harkes 10 years, 1 month ago

I agree with Taaazz - I think it's a definite call. I wanted to make sure I'm not a spew-monster, so here's what I did:
I gave villain an "ahead range" and a "behind range" and solved for the
% of time the "behind range" has to overplay the hand.

ahead range: A4o, 45o, 22-44 (for A4 and 45, i gave all the suited combos and half the unsuited combos, so 29 combos total).
behind range: 78 (all SC, 1/2 unsuited), 88+, Acxc, KcTc+, Qc9c+, Jc9c+, Tc9c, 8c9c (total 69 combos).

when ahead, I estimated about 80% equity; when behind, there's about 32% equity (13 outs / 46 + half the equity when a 4 shows up).

running the numbers: in order to fold, you have to figure he always plays this way when he's ahead and only plays this way with his "behind range" about 10% of the time.

given that he has a smaller stack, my sense is that your equity is probably much better than that: I expect him to show up with decent overpairs and some FDs fairly often here.

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