NL10z squeezed pot IP
Posted by TheAstiAsti
Posted by
TheAstiAsti
posted in
Low Stakes
NL10z squeezed pot IP
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BN: $10.00 (Hero)
SB: $3.33
BB: $9.75
UTG: $10.00
MP: $29.70
CO: $20.32
SB: $3.33
BB: $9.75
UTG: $10.00
MP: $29.70
CO: $20.32
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is BN with
A
6
, , , , , ,
Flop
($3.90)
9
7
Q
, ,
Turn
($3.90)
9
7
Q
4
, , , ,
River
($7.90)
9
7
Q
4
9
, ,
Final Pot
BN wins $7.54
Rake is $0.36
Rake is $0.36
MP reg no much stats
decided to give up F vs 2 opps
but after 2 STR checking I bet with NFD.
no much 9x on his range maybe random 9Xdd but I blocked FD
nothing hits I push. ofc he can herocall with TT-JJ or Qx but why he checked with Q then? so only random gutshots and pp's
I think I can rep here weak Qx, 9x. any thoughts?
Loading 14 Comments...
I like it
We re basically trying to get him off draws if we jam here. Not enough combos of underpairs compared to Qx to justify jamming imo. We beat a the draws mostly so we probably have higher ev by checking. Important to remember that checking isnt 0ev like folding always is.
Ah not good at SD only versus gutshots. pot is already 8$ blank river.
I was aggressor. Imo checking is give up here, but can he call river after double check on this board?
9x can call and Qx can call. Weaker Qx sure can fold but idk theres a ton of busted draws in your range and your value range is weaker. Its ok to give up sometimes. Doesnt matter. What matters is whats most ev and we beat his busted draws so I d check and maybe bet worse draws if i have them.
@WK2K but what Qx called squeeze and then not bet Turn after MCB? yeah I lose vs 9x but it's 79bb pot! I risk 67bb for 79bb and I am aggressor+they show weakness after 2 streets+blank R.
okay what you gonna do with my hand if one of callers bets OTT? You have NFD and overcard
We dont lose at showdown 100% of the time. Which is my argument here in the first place. When he folds to a second barrel most of the time we had a better hand. Its really important to remember that our ev isnt 0 when we check so our bet has to be better then checking which I m not totally convinced it is. I d rather bluff with a worse hand as then he can possibly fold Ahigh and Khigh.
tbh I dont like it really. You can fold only TT/JJ, you dont rep 9x I think.
If river was a 2-8 card I would probably shove the river, but when 9x pairs I dont like shoving there.
I'd probably bet turn and check back river since you have some A high showdown value.
which 9x can MP have?
He can have Qx for sure but how many combos is it? QJs KQs AQs? total of 9 combos (if we ignore blockereffects).
JJ and TT are 12 combos and his range is weighted more towards TT and JJ.
If he calls squeeze with AQo pre it gets close but we have A blocker so it can't be too bad. If he calls AQo pre and bluffcatches with JJ a decent amount the bluff is clearly -EV.
J9s,89s,T9s,A9s,99. Not much for combos and its not 100% weight but its something. I think you can def add AQo and even some weight of KQo. The vast majority of this is probably a poor call of a 3 bet but hey its 10nl people regularly make overly loose peels preflop. Also I think theres some argument to be made that its actually reasonable that villain could get ambitious and hero us with TT- JJ as what are we repping? AQ, QQ+ all bet flop, how many 9x do we realistically have and we re severely weighted to busted draws.
if I was MP i'd probably snap call with TT. Cause hero dont rep much and there are some busted draws.
1. Hero does not have 9x.
2. Hero does not play in this way Qx - especially on NL10 - there's no sense in xb flop and giving free equity to opponents if hero anyway wants to go allin with his Qx hand. So imo he's ultra polarised on QQ and busted draws.
That's my thinking process, maybe it's wrong dunno
Ok you guys convinced me that checking this back is probably better.
Also given the fact that we can have here some K-high or worse. If we have K high on the river I like the bluff because like you say, checking back with K high is probably 0.01 EV and bluffing is higher :).
but I can have 9x here if I squeezed pre with K9 or A9! dont want to bet middle pair vs 2 opps, but after turn checks I tried to steal this pot maybe they haven't nothing dont want let him catch free outs. but boom I hit trips and now I'm reppin busted draws pls call me with your TT-JJ. Is it not realistic?
Possible but unlikely. You squz every combo on A9s, K9s preflop 100% of the time? Its less important that you have it in your range. Its just important if villain will believe you and theres lots of reasons to think that your range OTR is severely unbalanced so its not impossible that villains look you up with TT,JJ at least some % making our bet pretty bad. Fwiw our range is severely unbalanced if we betting every busted draw on this river as seriously whats our value range here?
Sd value is good OTR, agree with WM2k for most part on all fronts.We are ahead of alll missed draws KJs KTs dd combos etc etc, and thats probably about it he is going to fold.
If I was villain id call Jj/TT here all day, your line is a bit face up. Im assuming you will bet most strong Qx+ OTF, and check back 9x at some frequency OTT. So it leaves you with a range of weighted Qx/ 9x OTR and bluffs.
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