5NLz 3b Pot KJs
Posted by Ryback
Posted by
Ryback
posted in
Low Stakes
5NLz 3b Pot KJs
Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players)
BN: $7.15 (Hero)
SB: $8.13
BB: $23.06
UTG: $5.00
MP: $5.84
CO: $5.10
SB: $8.13
BB: $23.06
UTG: $5.00
MP: $5.84
CO: $5.10
Preflop
($0.07)
Hero is BN with
J
K
, , , , , ,
Flop
($1.50)
7
6
4
, , , ,
UTG is 17/12 and SB is 23/17 11% 3b over 67 hands.
Is pre ok?
Wasn't sure what to do flop at all. Line feels like spew but really wasn't sure what kind of hands he would x/r with here.
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Yeah well played. Preflop is a bit eh but whatever, what can you do. Fold? Sounds lame.
If you look at this spot with equilab or pokerstove or whatever, you'll see that you have decent equity even againts a tight range. With that equity and all the money in the pot, we can shove this hand I think.
Looks like a close decision and you probably won't make a big mistake here either way. Pre both calling and 3bet is fine and otf shoving seems ok because of what Samu said. Calling is also fine with 9-12 outs and villain might x/f a 5 ott.
Looks fine. I'd be more likely to raise pre with KJ off but being suited gives you more playability on the flop. As played I think it seems fine, could consider checking back flop which is what I would do sometimes
we have two overcards and flushdraw can always allin on the flop
My pokerranger sais something different than the opinions
Btw: if you have AKs, than it is a +EV shove
First what 3-bet range you put Villain on ?
Than from there let's see if you got fold equity shoving the flop.
Than let's break out the math of the shove and see if its profitable or not.
Let's say Villain won't 3-bet with crap from the worst possible position on a poker table. Although his 3-bet% is 11% the sample is really low so we will at least cut by a third, lets gave him ~7%.
So his 3-bet range should look like this (This is very up for debate) :
On this particular flop
With your cards and V range its 50/50, but when V raise you he no longer have the 7% range so let's assume he do it with Value(50%+) and semi-bluff here, so he is doing it with this range :
Your equity to river vs this range is = ~38%
Now lets see if the shove is good (i multiply by 10 the money amounts because my shove equity calculator doesn't do cents)
So you need Villain to fold 53% of his range here to just break even on a shove.
He got 20 combos. Let's say best case scenario V fold JJ and QQ which account for 9 combos out of 20 so you making him fold 45% of his range, it's not enough.
The shove is a bad play and you'll loose money on the long run doing it.
But you need 27% on a call to be Break even and you got 21% going to the turn but with implied odds we can be pretty sure that V won't fold a turn since he most likely shove Turn and call our shove turn so the call is the best play here.
It's a good shove if V Fold more than 10% of his range. If he fold JJ yeah it's a good shove with AcKc.
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