[5NL] TPTK facing 3 barrels

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

[5NL] TPTK facing 3 barrels

Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players) BN: $4.34
SB: $13.05
BB: $24.87
UTG: $5.07 (Hero)
MP: $17.15
CO: $5.45
Preflop ($0.07) Hero is UTG with Q A
Hero raises to $0.15, 3 folds, SB calls $0.13, BB folds
Flop ($0.35) T 5 A
SB bets $0.18, Hero calls $0.18
Turn ($0.71) T 5 A 5
SB bets $0.52, Hero calls $0.52
River ($1.75) T 5 A 5 8
SB bets $1.50

Hi guys,

Just wondering if a river fold is the correct choice. I have not enough hands on villain for any meaningful stats since this is Zoom

Thank you

6 Comments

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Vincent Videau 8 years, 4 months ago

Since we aren't beaten by so many hands (full #6, DP #2, rarely AK let's say #2).

Since we have no info on the guy, I would consider there's always a "fish-doing-fancy-factor".

I don't think it's that bad to call here.

nexiun 8 years, 4 months ago

So he has 2 combos of ATs + 3 combos of TT + 1 combo of 55(maybe?) + 1 combo of A5s (maybe?) + 8 combos of AK(considering he doesn't 3 bet pre and maybe triple barrels).
Best case scenario he has 5 combos of value bets and worse case he has 15 combos and bets close to pot so you need around 30% equity or to find 30% of bluffs in his range.
I think on average we can consider him having 10 combos of value bets so we need to find 3 combos of bluffs, which would be KQdd, KJdd, QJdd, therefore leading to a breakeven call if you think 5NL zoom players can take this line with a bluff.

LumeniusN28 8 years, 4 months ago

You gotta take into scenario how often will he bluff when u call him on the turn, or would he bet the turn when the board has paired with that FD, so on the river it's aproximately 75%+ value bet.. But if u add some crazy durr style bluffs with just a naked K of diamonds, it could be a call.

Adam Wheeler 8 years, 4 months ago

He is exactly targeting the part of your range that you'll have a very difficult time to lay down.

Let's think about this. V called in the worst possible position in Poker. Plus, he called an UTG open in that particular position.

We got to think that his range is very PP heavy here thus not a range that will try to draw. And when he 2nd barrel Turn he is almost telling you that very particular fact. If you are V and got a Set Flop and you know that this board will hit UTG range are you slowing down Turn taking the chance that UTG will X back all his weak/mid showdown value, probably not.

That's why you got to take in consideration that V may in fact bet his FH on Turn. I have very difficult time to believe that V will 3 barrels Bluff NFD here, if so hats down. Lets be realistic, he got 2 combos for the NFD. He is putting you in very uncomfortable spot, and when you call Turn you're range became so narrow that he got all the liberty in the world River.

I think the call Turn is the corner stone of the hand here.

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