5NL - Unsure how to continue vs checkraise with TPGK on paired rainbow
Posted by baronmccool
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baronmccool
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Low Stakes
5NL - Unsure how to continue vs checkraise with TPGK on paired rainbow
CO: $6.75
BN: $5.59 (Hero)
SB: $4.07
BB: $9.72
UTG: $5.23
In the moment of play I couldn't figure out what sort of range might check/raise here and how to continue.
With limited information I assume he defends BB with (if assuming still about 20%):
22-TT
A2s+, K9s+, QTs+
A7o-AJo, KJ-KQo, QJo
and 3bets AA, KK, AK, AQ, QQ, JJ
With my flop bet I'd probably expect most pairs >= 4 and any of his aces to call, and raise with perhaps 77-TT or AhXh hands with the pair and a backdoor flush draw.
If I call, I'm ahead of his middling pairs and a lot of his aces, and with 80% equity vs his range with my exact hand if we assume like above that it is: TT, 88-77, 9h9s, 9h9c, 9s9c, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah3h, Ah2h.
If I raise maybe he continues with TT-99, AhJh, AhTh which is about 36% of his raising range. So we could fold out a lot of hands and fold to a shove, or just be in a weird spot where we give up if he just calls.
So if I raise to $1 (is that 2/3 pot) and he continues with about 36% of his raising range I'm assuming the EV is something like:
(0.64 * 82) + (0.37 * 65)
52.48 - 24.05
+28.43c
Folding seems like bad since we're often ahead.
If I called, would we essentially want to check/call the turn and be ready to fold the river if the board gets scary and bets large?
Feedback welcome if more/different information required in my own analysis of this, I'm expecting there to be a fair chunk of mistakes in the assumptions/review. I'm as much looking to improve my review process as understand the hand.
Loading 7 Comments...
It's usually a bad idea to calculate EVs specially if you have no evidence about his PF ranges or his check-raising range on the flop.
A nice approach is to have an average of how your opponents play, what is called "pool tendencies", and add some experiencie and game theory to try to find the best strategy. For example your pool probably underdefends versus a 2bb open from BTN and 3-bet pretty tight (not sure because I don't play there, but very likely). Also the pool is value-heavy when they check/raise the flop, but they have bluffs sometimes.
My first advice is that you should bet smaller on the flop, 1/3 of pot is fine. The board is very dry and your value betting hands don't need protection.
As played, you're facing a better hand or a bluff most of the time, so you have a bluffcatcher. Given that he doesn't have that many 4x and the best Ax in his preflop range, he can have enough bluffs to continue, so just call the flop.
In my experience, when he has a bluff he will check/fold turn often in these type of textures, so if he bets turn... I'd fold unless we spike an out (A,9 or flush draw), that would be a strong line by Villian and in NL5 strong lines are very value-heavy.
I made a quick simulation with GTO+ and agrees with that line: it calls the flop, and calls/folds with a mixed strategy versus a turn bet, given that in NL5 we expect Villian to be underbluffing, the turn is a clear fold even in a balanced strategy.
nothing to add here, very good post!
Thanks for the solid response. I was looking at too much detail in the wrong areas. Is the reasoning for 1/3 just that we're trying to risk less overall to just try and see a showdown and/or trying to keep his range wider when he continues?
for that topic check this thread and especially the posts of zenfish:
http://www.runitonce.com/nlhe/why-13-is-the-best-sizing-on-the-flop/
Great link, thanks.
call flop esp with the bdfd and 2 bdqd's
Agree with Jack on this one. I’d likely raise 2.5 or 3x from BU for value. I’d say this sample prolly defends more vs the min raise so his range is vary wide.
Agree with the smaller flop bet as you’re going to have a high bet frequency, especially with the min raise. Check / Raise range is also going to be wider here as a result so you can call more.
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