5NL TPTK on the river
Posted by Green_in_Colour
Posted by
Green_in_Colour
posted in
Low Stakes
5NL TPTK on the river
HJ: $5.61 (Hero)
CO: $4.10
BN: $7.96
SB: $4.95
BB: $5
CO: $4.10
BN: $7.96
SB: $4.95
BB: $5
BTN is playing 18/12/only 2% 3bet percentage - 159 hands
Flats quite a lot on the button over fairly small sample.
WTSD 21% WWSF 53%(small sample)
Flats quite a lot on the button over fairly small sample.
WTSD 21% WWSF 53%(small sample)
Preflop
($0.07)
(5 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
K
Hero raises to $0.17, CO folds, BN calls $0.17, SB folds, BB folds
Hero raises to $0.17, CO folds, BN calls $0.17, SB folds, BB folds
Flop
($0.41)
K
8
2
(2 Players)
Hero bets $0.26,
BN calls $0.26
Turn
($0.93)
K
8
2
5
(2 Players)
Hero bets $0.59,
BN calls $0.59
River
($2.11)
K
8
2
5
3
(2 Players)
Looking at the hand again, both flop and turn look a bit on the small side?
Wasn't too sure what to do on the river.
Bet/fold?
Thanks.
Loading 7 Comments...
at these stakes this player i would check/fold the river if he made any decent sized bet. after he goes call-call he either has pair or flush draw. when you check the river he is likely to check back almost all his 1 pair hands and his flushes. so do you beat any of his value range? is he likely to be double floating and bluffing the river on this board?
i would only take the bet/fold like vs real station type player
yes i think you can bet more on flop and turn
if he flats BUT with 22-TT,67s+,AJ+,KQ+ and no slowplays with QQ+/AK then floats flop with pairs/Ax/FDs then calls turn only with FDs,Kx,99-TT (assume he is raising flop or turn with sets) we get this:
Board: 8hKs2s5h
Equity Win Tie
MP3 87.62% 87.62% 0.00% { AhKd }
BU 12.38% 12.38% 0.00% { TT-99, AhQh, AsQs, KhQh, KcQc, AhJh, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs }
this is river starting range:
Board: 8hKs2s5h3s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 68.97% 68.97% 0.00% { AhKd }
BU 31.03% 31.03% 0.00% { TT-99, AhQh, AsQs, KhQh, KcQc, AhJh, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs }
if we bet - what calls? i am thinking only Kx and flushes which looks like this:
Board: 8hKs2s5h3s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 58.82% 58.82% 0.00% { AhKd }
BU 41.18% 41.18% 0.00% { KJs, KhQh, KcQc, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs }
so i stand corrected :)
as an aside if he is not CC preflop it swings the other way
Board: 8hKs2s5h3s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 36.36% 36.36% 0.00% { AhKd }
BU 63.64% 63.64% 0.00% { KJs, KhQh, KcQc, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s }
or if he calls preflop with KQo and SGs we get this:
Board: 8hKs2s5h3s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 41.67% 41.67% 0.00% { AhKd }
BU 58.33% 58.33% 0.00% { KJs, KhQh, KcQc, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8h7h, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 6s5s, KQo }
so key factor is our assumptions about his preflop CC range on the BUT
also if we bet bigger on flop and turn i think he fold enough FDs on the turn that the river bet/fold become best line for sure
looking at it in stove he probably doesnt have a whole lot of 2's or 8's in his range so sets, K's or fd's are most likely hands to call flop depending on how nitty he really is..probably raises sets on the turn if he doesnt on flop. id bet river for value fairly small to get calls from worse K's and fold to a raise when he calls flop and turn and raises river.
if hero checks the river and villain bets do you guys call or fold here?
Against a tight(ish) player, folding to a reasonably sized bet would be best?
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