5NL TPTK on the river

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

5NL TPTK on the river

HJ: $5.61 (Hero)
CO: $4.10
BN: $7.96
SB: $4.95
BB: $5
BTN is playing 18/12/only 2% 3bet percentage - 159 hands
Flats quite a lot on the button over fairly small sample.
WTSD 21% WWSF 53%(small sample)
Preflop ($0.07) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt A K
Hero raises to $0.17, CO folds, BN calls $0.17, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($0.41) K 8 2 (2 Players)
Hero bets $0.26, BN calls $0.26
Turn ($0.93) K 8 2 5 (2 Players)
Hero bets $0.59, BN calls $0.59
River ($2.11) K 8 2 5 3 (2 Players)
Thoughts on sizing?
Looking at the hand again, both flop and turn look a bit on the small side?

Wasn't too sure what to do on the river.
Bet/fold?

Thanks.

7 Comments

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mike 12 years, 1 month ago
i don't think 18/12 guy is calling river with 99-QQ, he may not even have all combos of KQ/KJ in preflop range, and with his very low 3B consider he may flat KK+/AK some of the time - overall i don't think you can get called by a worse range on the river vs solid looking reg

at these stakes this player i would check/fold the river if he made any decent sized bet. after he goes call-call he either has pair or flush draw. when you check the river he is likely to check back almost all his 1 pair hands and his flushes. so do you beat any of his value range? is he likely to be double floating and bluffing the river on this board?

i would only take the bet/fold like vs real station type player

yes i think you can bet more on flop and turn
James Hudson 12 years, 1 month ago
Also, if we're going to use the fact that he's 18/12 to imply that he's likely tight postflop then we can also use those stats to deduce that he likely doesn't have a ton of flush draws in his preflop calling range. Bet folding around half pot looks good to me on the river and I'd bet the turn closer to 3/4 pot.
mike 12 years, 1 month ago
since james like bet/fold - thought i would take a closer look at this spot

if he flats BUT with 22-TT,67s+,AJ+,KQ+ and no slowplays with QQ+/AK then floats flop with pairs/Ax/FDs then calls turn only with FDs,Kx,99-TT (assume he is raising flop or turn with sets) we get this:

Board: 8hKs2s5h
Equity Win Tie
MP3 87.62% 87.62% 0.00% { AhKd }
BU 12.38% 12.38% 0.00% { TT-99, AhQh, AsQs, KhQh, KcQc, AhJh, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs }

this is river starting range:

Board: 8hKs2s5h3s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 68.97% 68.97% 0.00% { AhKd }
BU 31.03% 31.03% 0.00% { TT-99, AhQh, AsQs, KhQh, KcQc, AhJh, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs }

if we bet - what calls? i am thinking only Kx and flushes which looks like this:
Board: 8hKs2s5h3s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 58.82% 58.82% 0.00% { AhKd }
BU 41.18% 41.18% 0.00% { KJs, KhQh, KcQc, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs }

so i stand corrected :)

as an aside if he is not CC preflop it swings the other way
Board: 8hKs2s5h3s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 36.36% 36.36% 0.00% { AhKd }
BU 63.64% 63.64% 0.00% { KJs, KhQh, KcQc, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s }

or if he calls preflop with KQo and SGs we get this:
Board: 8hKs2s5h3s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 41.67% 41.67% 0.00% { AhKd }
BU 58.33% 58.33% 0.00% { KJs, KhQh, KcQc, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8h7h, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 6s5s, KQo }

so key factor is our assumptions about his preflop CC range on the BUT

also if we bet bigger on flop and turn i think he fold enough FDs on the turn that the river bet/fold become best line for sure
theQUAD 12 years, 1 month ago
i think id bet a bit bigger on the turn due to 2 flush draws now being possible and him having some flush draws in his button calling range and some worse K's that will call. dont think even a nitty 5nl player with 2% 3-bet would flat KK here.

looking at it in stove he probably doesnt have a whole lot of 2's or 8's in his range so sets, K's or fd's are most likely hands to call flop depending on how nitty he really is..probably raises sets on the turn if he doesnt on flop. id bet river for value fairly small to get calls from worse K's and fold to a raise when he calls flop and turn and raises river.

if hero checks the river and villain bets do you guys call or fold here?
Green_in_Colour 12 years, 1 month ago
Yea, would also like to know what's the best plan on the river if we check.
Against a tight(ish) player, folding to a reasonably sized bet would be best?

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