[5/5 NL - LIVE] Small pair on relatively dry board. Good spot for river bluff?
Posted by DickDollars
Posted by DickDollars posted in Mid Stakes
[5/5 NL - LIVE] Small pair on relatively dry board. Good spot for river bluff?
UTG: ~$$800
CO: ~$600 (Hero)
Villain is tough, thinking player who has decent online volume, likes to talk strat away from the game, etc. We are pretty friendly w/ each other and don't have a lot of history in pots together - though when we have tangled he has seemed surprised at (and paid off) some of the spots I have value bet thin against him. I have assumed he will start value betting thinner against me as well, which plays into my thinking in this spot.
Preflop ($10)
Hero was dealt 5c5d
Villain raises $25 UTG, Hero calls in CO.
Flop ($60)
9c 7d 4h
Villain bets $40, Hero calls.
Note: Villain tends to auto-cbet his raising range on flops, a bit too much imo. Flop call could be a mistake on my part, though he tends to not double barrel when called in these spots.
Turn ($140)
Qs
Villain checks, Hero checks.
River ($140)
3h
Villain bets $80. I'm positive he is value-betting something like JJ-TT in this spot and don't want to fold. Raising/shoving seems good but I don't think I am repping much more than a slow-played set on the flop or 56s that gets there. What's the more important consideration here - his range for calling or mine for raising?
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