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[5/5 NL - LIVE] Small pair on relatively dry board. Good spot for river bluff?

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[5/5 NL - LIVE] Small pair on relatively dry board. Good spot for river bluff?

Blinds: $5/$5 | NLHE 7-handed
UTG: ~$$800
CO: ~$600 (Hero)
Villain is tough, thinking player who has decent online volume, likes to talk strat away from the game, etc. We are pretty friendly w/ each other and don't have a lot of history in pots together - though when we have tangled he has seemed surprised at (and paid off) some of the spots I have value bet thin against him. I have assumed he will start value betting thinner against me as well, which plays into my thinking in this spot.

Preflop ($10)
Hero was dealt 5c5d
Villain raises $25 UTG, Hero calls in CO.

Flop ($60)
9c 7d 4h
Villain bets $40, Hero calls.

Note: Villain tends to auto-cbet his raising range on flops, a bit too much imo. Flop call could be a mistake on my part, though he tends to not double barrel when called in these spots.

Turn ($140)
Qs
Villain checks, Hero checks.

River ($140)
3h
Villain bets $80. I'm positive he is value-betting something like JJ-TT in this spot and don't want to fold. Raising/shoving seems good but I don't think I am repping much more than a slow-played set on the flop or 56s that gets there. What's the more important consideration here - his range for calling or mine for raising?

2 Comments

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james 12 years, 3 months ago
Given that he raised to 5x and it looks like you're likely to take this flop HU with effective stacks just over 100bb I think folding preflop is probably better. One he continuation bets the flop I think it's a fold too given how poorly your hand is going to play on later streets. On the river, even though he's likely not super strong, it's hard for you to raise as most of your strong "raisable" hands wouldn't have checked back the turn. Finally, you've said that he's paid you off a decent amount in the past so raising seems even less appealing.
Becks 12 years, 3 months ago
Pretty much agree with everything James said. Preflop depends on the players behind. But i´d mostly be calling if there are no active squeezers behind me.

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