5/10HUNL, 3bet Pot with KK
Posted by Sean Lefort
Posted by
Sean Lefort
posted in
High Stakes
5/10HUNL, 3bet Pot with KK
Seems incredibly standard. But I was a little curious about just how much value the river jam had and what the numbers looked like so I looked into it. I think it's good to analyze hands sometimes even when you think they're completely standard just to re-affirm your thoughts and potentially tweak some variables to find thresholds. I was a bit surprised at what I found with this hand.
By shoving the river, we need to be called by a worse hand > 50% of the time for it to be profitable, of course. If we give him a calling range pf of the top ~40% of hands minus the top ~4-5% that he likely 4bets, he can (and most likely will) show up on the river with the following hands that beat us: (AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, T8s, 88, 33) All of which probably take this line close to 100% of the time.
So next, I added hands until I reached the threshold where KK wins > 50% of the time and I was a little surprised at how deep I had to go. This is the range I came up with: (AJ, A8, 99, 77, 66)
Arguably, some of these hands get played different on prior streets only thinning the frequencies and making us dig deeper to 55/44. And if we add T8o into his range pre-flop while taking away 99 (if he 4bets it) and adding suitedness to A8 (to represent that he might not flat A8o pre and/or float it on the flop) then we have to go as far as him hero-calling with AQ before we start showing profit with our river jam. Quite the result!
Of course, the cool thing is that if he's not calling the river wide enough thus making our bet with KK a -EV bet, the effect on our entire range is likely +EV if we assume that we bluff the river with an appropriate frequency and that our play on prior streets sets up properly for such a balanced river range. So I don't think anything but jam is really an option here but I found it very interesting to see how close it actually was and that its very possible that it can be a chk/fold (crazy I know!) against the extreme tightest/nittiest of opponents.
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