5/10 Stars HU: turn decision on draw heavy board
Posted by Swoop
Posted by
Swoop
posted in
High Stakes
5/10 Stars HU: turn decision on draw heavy board
SB: $1748.50 (Hero)
BB: $1409.67
BB: $1409.67
Preflop
($15.00)
(2 Players)
Hero was dealt
6
6
Hero raises to $25, BB calls $15
Hero raises to $25, BB calls $15
Flop
($55.00)
8
4
Q
(2 Players)
BB checks,
Hero checks
Turn
($55.00)
8
4
Q
6
(2 Players)
BB bets $40,
Hero raises to $130,
BB raises to $300
So far I´ve stacked him once AA vs AK aipf other than that he basically won all the big hands and I was down ~2 buyins at the time.
Any thoughts on how to proceed from here are very welcome. Thanks.
Loading 11 Comments...
I was thinking about this hand a lot. Dont we hate any heart, spade, 7, 5, T on the river, which would make calling inferior to raise/shipping?
de.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Qs4s8h6h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 47.54% 47.54% 0.00% { 6d6c }
MP3 52.46% 52.46% 0.00% { 88, 44, Q8s, 75s }
that`s what i`d assume his valuerange for 3betting the turn, but not 100% stacking off with the 2pair combos, so vs the stackoff turn range i`d assume for villain we aren`t in good shape:
de.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Qs4s8h6h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 38.86% 38.86% 0.00% { 6d6c }
MP3 61.14% 61.14% 0.00% { 88, 44, 75s }
that doesn`t mean i think we are behind villains overall range for 3betting the turn. since we are capped and 666 is like the top top of our range ( i`d assume we are perceived to cbet most 75 gutshot type hands)
i would say villain has lot`s of semibluffs in his turn 3betting range if he`s active as the info`s say he will keep firing the river on most runouts (either too thin for value or as a bluff).
all that said i think what sean said in his 1st post is right. the most ev play imo is def. to call turn and call ANY river, obv shove 4x or 6x river and exploit the weak part of his range kind of "faking our perceived range".
Within the range done, i believe we have hands of pretty much any strenght. So the turn raise i think it's standard if not mandatory against him, now what happens after the raise is a matter of balance.
In the current situation you have a hand which is probably the better one ALOT of the time. Coming back to your CheckBehind Flop , Raise turn Range , we can clearly see that it is mostly made out of bluffs and semi bluffs in order to become profitable against him.
Therefore having a strong hand right now on our first action of this kind is great for us. Why is that? Because right now we can set a pattern for our future hands(bluff , semi-bluffs) which we want to balance. You should actually play this hand the way you want to play a bluff later on.
I acknowledge the fact that this is the first time you proceed with this line of raising him on the turn, but you said that you have started checking back most flops and he was stabbing most turns. Therefore he would be expecting a raise at somepoint and he might even be ready to counter it first time. If we evaluate the range of hands that beat us and after that we look at the range that he might be doing the same play with, we'll see he is behind alot of the time.
He could easily be doing this with hands like , all his 2pairs, all the nut flushdraws which are probably not that many since he would 3bet a hand like AXs preflop, 44 , all his monster draws e.g. Th9h , Pair+FlushDraw, Gutshot + Flushdraw e.g. J7s, etc. All these hands you definetly have beaten and you are happy to get your money in, against. The only hands that beat you are QQ,88 and 57. QQ is impossible for him to have since he has shown so much aggression preflop , and i believe he would 3bet 88 preflop aswell. So pretty much the only hand that BEATS you and he would make this play with is 5x7x. All the other hands, you destroy.
Now , getting alot of money into the pot on the Turn is the best play for this specific scenario.So you should go ahead and raise him.
BUT you are facing an opponent that exploits you, and in headsup if you lose the small pots you're going to lose the game. Even tho we have agreed that gettin alot of money in the pot would turn profitable for us in this specific scenario, we need to focus on the future and, we need, right now, on this very hand to make a play with which we will balance all our future bluffs. It is adviseable that we get to showdown with this hand so he gets the ideea that when we make this Counter Turn Raise, we have actually hit something.
This is a tricky spot because if we were to have a bluff and 5bet the turn, he would most likely get all in , all the hands that we said we beat with our 66 + the 5x7x . So if we were to bluff, i think 5bet-bluffing the turn would prove to be not profitable for us. On This board we should only continue after his 4bet with hands that actually can improve on the river. Like A5 or A7 with The A of spades/hearts to block the nutflushdraw and to have the chance to improve to a str8. Or we can continue with hands like JT, all the Flushdraws, basically all the draws. We can continue with a call, with all those since we assume that he is sometimes semi-bluffing in this spot and we can improve or bluff him later. Right here all of our bluffs should actually be missed draws and we should have a huge chunk of value as well in order for him to fold here since he will have something most of the time.
It Seems rather easier on this scenario to just inflate the pot on the turn since we've decided we are ahead, and not bluff/semi-bluff him ,at all, on these kind of boards since he might always have something .
Sometimes on that river he will have 2pair type hands, smaller sets, Pair+Flushdraw, and you're going to represent hands like draws by calling his turn 4bet.
The fact that you represent so many draws is the reason which i prefer a Turn CALL instead of Turn Raise, because when all the draws miss and you Bet Heavily it will look like you have missed all your draws and you're trying to buy the pot. That's why he might call you with just a pair and a missed flushdraw , 2pairs etc. And when the draw hits you can proceed with caution.
My advice would be to call the turn and balance your range , for when you have draws. Your hand, might even get payed because it looks, like something else. Play your hand like this, with a call, on drawy boards, BUT if you find yourself in this situation on a Dry board, just go ahead and raise it. Do that with your bluffs aswell if you see him starting to 4bet you loose on the turn. This way you will be the one exploiting him :D
re-raising here would just shut out his bluffs and isolate you against very nutty hands..
after all, he might just react on your line which looks very FOS
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