5/10 : lost on the river...
Posted by ATRC
Posted by
ATRC
posted in
High Stakes
5/10 : lost on the river...
5/10
Me : 2000
Villain : 2500
Villain is a decent reg.
Very tight player preflop, seems to be straight forward after. But as he is living from poker, at this stakes for at least 5 years, he might have some bluff too..
My image : loose agro.
Villain opened 35 (Hijack) after all table folded.
I called OTB with JdTd
Flop : 8sTs4h (85)
He bet 55
I called
Turn : 8sTs4hJh (195)
He bet 120
I raised to 430
He tank called
River : 8sTs4hJhKd (1055)
He bet 800
My first guess was he has a very strong hand. He shows strength by calling the turn.
But, as he called the turn without raising on a drawy board, I feel some weakness.
When he bet OTR, I was completely lost.
He should have checked and leave me bet.
If I was on a miss draw, I would have bet and nearly all my value hand raising the turn would have bet the river.
So I was very confused by this bet…
Bluff?
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If you really think about it, it's an easy turbo snap fold river.
This is exactly what I did.
Afterwards, I am still confused with his range..
What range can you put him on?
The only potential bluff is 56s 67s , and not a lot of people has the ballz to lead bluff river after you raise the turn.
He could have AQhh AQss KK rarely some JJ TT 88 97s Q9s , he could have decent amount of value hands, and i really don't think at all ppl leads AKhh on the river.
Ok, I agree with you.
And I folded.
Now, Why he did not check the river?
Either I am on a miss draw and I would be tempted to bet, either I have a strong hand and I would bet.
I think in his shoes, I would have check to check/call or to check/raise..
I think that a lot of ppl don't call less than 88, so if you look at your range on the river, you prob want to xbehind a lot this river, in live game i think i play AQss AQhh this way, cause ppl are really not value betting thinly or overplaying their hand (wo reads) , i think it's the highest EV default play in this spot.
If vilains is not bad, we are mostly isolating against 2p+ draws, and it seems not great to raise .
with JT/44/88 i would have checked.
But with TT, JJ i would have bet...
Thanks for this answer.
Merci beaucoup!
AQ makes the most sense here AA, KK, QQ, KJ(ss) QJ(ss) on the looser side. Was that his normal bet sizing? Also I would lean towards a stronger starting hand but without more info I think folding is the right move
AQhh/AQss/KK + not enough bluffs
Lets assume his range looks like AA,KK,QQ,KQ, KJ, J10, 108, J8, JJ,1010, 88, 99, 44, AsKs, AsQs, Ks9s and Q9, all of these hands would or could play the turn the same way, except maybe AsQs and AsKs which could possibly find a logical fold. When he leads the river for $800 it looks to me like he doesn't want to call more than $800 or he doesn't want to miss a value bet if he has 2 pair or better and let you check behind with your one pair hand that raised the turn. You say he's decent, so that means he is a thinking player and is very very aware you have a hand and are probably calling 85% of the time if not 100%. It very well might not be a value bet but rather a max call blocking bet that will fold to a jam and save the other half of his stack. Its NEVER a bluff.
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