5/10 - 4 Bet pot facing river decision
Posted by Squall_es
Posted by
Squall_es
posted in
High Stakes
5/10 - 4 Bet pot facing river decision
HJ: 1000
CO: 2024.48
BN: 2422.86
SB: 2119.26 (Hero)
BB: 970
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to 30, BN folds, Hero raises to 95.80, BB folds, CO raises to 240, Hero calls 144.20
Villain is one of the best regs in the room. He's a 26 / 22 / 9 and likes to 4Bet a lot when stacks are deep to keep the initiative and put pressure on the opponent. Some other relevant stats: WTSD%: 31, WonSD: 53, CBet Frequencies: Flop 55, Turn 50, River 55; CBet in 3-4 Bet pot: 70.
Preflop: I decided to call the 4Bet instead 5 Betting for two reasons. First, if I 5Bet I'm only getting action by KK and making him fold a good portion of his range which is dominated. (I don't even think he reraises KK, more likely to call my 5Bet). And second, since I'm never 5 Betting here with KK against a solid villain, it makes sense to call with all my value range and improve my playability postflop at the cost of letting him see the flop for free with his weak range.
Flop: Not much to say.
Turn: Things get interesting here when the K pairs the board and he barrels again, but still AA too strong to fold here.
River: ?
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Hey! Interesting hand. I'm really curious what your call-4b range looks like in this spot accurately? I guess if you call all your value range, you aren't gonna 5bet bluff either, or it isn't necessary to balance your 5b range in a spot like this?
My 4Bet calling range here would be something like this: TT-AA,AK,AQs-AJs
On the first glance this spot looks scary, but actually I think AA is an "easy" call, not because I think we´re ahead too often, but because there´s no alternative and every parameter is pro-calling:
1) We block AK very good (only 4 combos of AK possible!!).
2) KQ would be a close ship for him, imho.
3) We probably arrive with at least KQs, AK and AA at the river. If we fold AA, we fold 37.5% - making it an auto-profit-bluff for Villain with any2.
4) If we add QQ (are we folding QQ on the turn?), we´re even folding > 50%. What about JJ?
If Villain does not expect us to have AA in our range, he could give us at least JJ, QQ - which again comes to 50% folding-range.
No matter how we turn it around, I guess AA is definitely a call, QQ would be a way harder decision - and obviously depends on how often we have worse hands in our range.
Only thing that worries me is that he doesn´t seem to be the absolute barrel monkey, on the other hand I don´t see him checking the turn too often, after it reduces he possible Kx-combos in your range.
I don't think KQs is in my range here, since I'd rather flat it Preflop. My range on the river would lean towards AA,KK,AK and QQ. The non exploitative play would be call with AA,KK and AK, altough I'm awfully crying with AA :_(.
At 200bb, we can call a lot of lower K to a small 4b. Also might C/R AA on flop. SO we aren't really folding 37.5%
Your 3-bet is way too small. 3.5x would be my standard play in a 100BB spot, so 4x here for sure. If Villian 4-bets a lot, you don't need to make it more, otherwise you'll make him risk more on a bluff.
If Villian 4-bets light in deep spots, you need a wider 5-bet bluffing range, and a wider value range. If flatting AA is your standard play, your 5-betting range becomes very unbalanced.
Now you're in a big pot OOP with a fairly high SPR. Villian can outplay you here, and crack your aces with a wider range.
I would not check-raise the flop because you block AK that stacks off, and he has more bluffs because he 4-bets a lot. Calling turn and folding river seems fine. You only beat no equity bluffs and missed hearts.
Again, you allow VIllian to 3-bet any K blocker and let him draw out on you. If you 5-bet bluff enough and widen your value range, you'll force him to get it in lighter, or to start giving you respect.
Agree with the 3Bet sizing should have been x4.
About the preflop dynamics I understand your point but experience tells me that the benefits of having a 5bet blufing range are not that beneficial unless we add KK into our 5Bet value range so we can bluff a few more combos, but then again when we get it in with KK 200BB++ we are crushed most of the time against this kind of villain and what we win by making him fold his bluffs, we lose it when getting coolered
It's true we'll be OOP with a high SPR and we'll face tough spots frequently but I believe in terms of EV+ this is better or at least not worse than the standard play, with the bonus that it strenghts our range postflop so we are not getting bullied with our other holdings which is what tends to happen in these spots.
I like the preflop call, nothing wrong with it.
Could you elaborate as to what part of my post you disagree with? I wouldn't at all mind it in a <140BB or so spot, but the SPR is so high and you know he's wide. That wide range won't just spew off 200BB here
Sorry, you´re right, just posting one sentence is not my regular style. :)
The big question is if we really want to establish a wide 5bet-bluffing-range 200bb - even against an opponent that 4bets light. I mean, look at the stacks, what size do you want to 5bet - so that you´d be able to fold against a shove? If you make it any reasonable amount that doesn´t give your opponent odds of like a gazillion to one, you´re essentially committed - so you could shove immediately, because Villain knows that you´re rarely bluffing.
That said, if you 5bet or shove with AA doesn´t matter. Now the question is, do you rather want to establish a wide 5bet-(shoving)-range against his wide 4-bet-range or do you want to be able to maintain a wider calling-range. Against a Villain that 4bets "that" light and keeps pressure, it´s absolutely no problem to NEVER 5bet, but call with your entire continuing range.
"... the SPR is so high and you know he's wide. That wide range won't just spew off 200BB here ..."
The higher SPR is good for us, because it allows him to "spew" more than with a smaller SPR. Furthermore, it´s more "likely" that he will make mistakes in the given scenario than that he´s making a mistake against our 5bet (be it a shove or not). For example, he won´t jam AQ or JJ over our 5-bet, he might even find a fold with AK, so unless we cooler him with KK (which will most likely not change anything longterm, if he makes his set or not), there´s no advantage of 5-betting AA.
Hope it got clear now, why I like the flat pre?
And the river still is a call. :D
You've convinced me about everything but the river call. What can he have that doesn't beat Hero?
He could be on a pure bluff ... like AQ, AJ, Axhh and stuff - basically any A makes it very unlikely that Hero holds AK - and as we know he likes to put pressure on his opponents. See, if we´re considering folding AA in this spot - the only combos we can call are precisely AK and KK. If Villain blocks one A, our calling-range makes up for merely 7 combos. If we have QQ and AA in our range and fold all those, it´s a brillant / cheap bluff for him.
BigFiszh crushed this thread. Agree w/ everything he mentioned.
seems like pretty std riv fold, we have too many Kx combos here to do anything else - dont think most villains have any ace in their hand and see it as a great blocker on the riv to go for a shove
he also shouldnt think we have AA and should think that we fold QQ and JJ lots on the turn IMO
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