50Z river decision with 2pair
Posted by frontdoorbackdoor
Posted by
frontdoorbackdoor
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Low Stakes
50Z river decision with 2pair
SB: $79.13
BB: $103.52 (Hero)
UTG: $23.25
MP: $88.11
CO: $56.46
Tanked for a while and timed out on the river but thought this was quite close in game. I was planning on the turn to be calling river up to 2/3p on good runnouts and this river is a total brick.
He can have the missed straight draws and flush draws as bluffs but don't think he is value betting worse here. I'd also get here with AT and quite a few better 2 pairs. Not really liking my blockers either and would prefer to bluff catch with a hand like KT instead. I ran the hand through GTO+ and it came up as QJo being close to neutral EV and that is even with IP barreling with a lot of low pairs and turning 7x into bluffs.
Vs this guy who seems on the tightish side and knowing that population will likely underbluff this spot for this sizing, can we make a fold?
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I like XF I don't see enough natural bluffs to compensate villains valuerange
i c/f too,
w KQ i call
Problem w x/folding is that we have a bunch of pair+straight draw on turn, plus some nut fd's, pair + fd etc. So folding two pair on a brick river is quite exploitable I think, and in villain shoes he should be bluffing this river quite agressively I guess
Shouldn't he start to fold worst Kx and worst pair+GS OTT? It's not like he has all pair+draw hands and Kx OTR or?
I think spot is close vs passive player and he has like the strongest hand that can consider folding.
Probably yes, but there's still bunch of marginal strong stuff with some bonus equity to defend
ofc spot is close, but whithout reads I don't see my self folding
Runned a pio on this one. Ofc w some assumptions we could start exploiting villain by overfolding, but in this case I don't think we can make any sort of read having 180hand sample.
I would call strong 2 pairs(this one for sure) and fold KT. My reason behind that: I don't think it is polar spot in which villain can never have worse for value, while Tx blocker is great for sure but beating some of possible value is better(maybe AK,AA,J7s, same QJ).
Honestly I would be more excited to see shove( or huge overbet) by villian, and that's situation where our QJ is likely folding at really high frequency
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