50z overpair + FD in 3b pot vs weird turn shove
Posted by Poncheezied
Posted by Poncheezied posted in Low Stakes
50z overpair + FD in 3b pot vs weird turn shove
https://www.weaktight.com/h/5d155208d390430c428b4749
So I'm content with my line here, villain is some kind of reg. He seems loose and I spewed in a 3b pot vs him earlier so he probs has an image of me as bad.
I don't see what hands he's repping here other than 44 or a 75s that checked flop. All sets would bet flop and this isn't a line semi bluffs would take. Even a made flush would bet small flop or raise turn small. So the shove feels like a strong but vulnerable hand. Doesn't make much sense and we have one of the best hands in our range here.
Any thoughts? Thanks
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A set can make this play and does not have to bet always on flop also two pair can. But as it is a 3 bet pot it is not likely that he has a set on that low board. Other possibilities are a nut-flush draw or a made flush both do not need (much) protection and can wait till the turn to bet. e.g. nut-flush draw, the nut-flush and JcTc can make this play.
What are you trying to accomplish with your turn bet size? What hands do you think will call or raise and which ones will fold?
Would not like the situation but would call as you have a club blocker in your hand and even if villain has a hand like JcTc you can outdraw the villain. Would prob fold without the club blocker.
Okay: vs your squeeze there aren't too many low flushes compare to sets. Does he call 54s vs sqz - likely No!;97s - same; K9s - probably no; A2s - maybe sometimes.
He can still have all sets in his range and just check behind half of times it on the flop.
On bluff side- he probably never calls weaker than AQo and it won't play this way. Still gotta call that, maybe people turn 76,65 into a bluff or overplay JJ/TT.
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