50z - overpair facing small raise on river
Posted by Poncheezied
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Poncheezied
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50z - overpair facing small raise on river
https://www.weaktight.com/h/5d21fcf2d39043133b8b482f
So I think flop cbet is fine multi way on what I believe is a safe board. Turn I'm not sure what to do honestly. Probably should keep barrelling as it shouldn't help his range that much? Can we fire 3 streets safely here vs his range for value?
Anyway I went for a pot control kind of line and tried a value bet on what I thought was a safe river. His raise doesn't make much sense to me.
His turn check kind of caps him to maybe weak pairs like maybe 77/88 or TT/JJ but they would bet some of the time on turn.
If he has floated flop with an overcard hand like QJs or AQs then it would probably bluff turn? esp those that pick up the FD. I don't see what air hands will decline to bluff turn then suddenly decide to bluff river.
Any thoughts?
Thanks guys
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Without any extra info on villain one has to go out from the player pool.On turn most villain will bet sets and straights so the only likely hand that is represented is TT. Some peeps will bet turn with flush draw others just check back.
If TT is the only logical value hand then villain can easily over bluff in this spot and if no other info available would make a hesitant call.
While this may look like a good flop to you, you have to play ur overpair cautiously. All sets are in play and with three callers, there’s a good chance one of them has it. Ok to cbet OTF but I’d go smaller and attempt to keep the pot manageable. Your mistake is really OTT where you are at a loss on what to do. River is easy fold AP.
Flop is pretty great for your range, villain has no 2 pair here as they really shouldn't be flatting 54s and they may or may not have sets, calling your baby pairs here is a marginally losing play I think because they you suck at realising equity with them even in position and you can't call profitably facing a large enough squeeze however let's assume villain has them. Essentially you are absolutely crushing this flop with your overpair advantage and when we add in the fact that it's a rainbow flop so villain doesn't have the advantage of having a greater proportion of suited hands in their range than you meaning you can be quite aggressive here which is rare for this spot as usually OOP in SRP we need to do a lot of checking with our range.
Flop is fine, villain is going to have a lot of overcards with a backdoor flushdraw so they're going to float a lot so I think you might be able to push your range advantage here more effectively with smaller sizings as you're letting villain drop some of their weaker floats with this sizing but as most people are fairly insensitive to bet sizings this is probably fine.
On the turn we just can't check this and I think you probably realise that, after villain calls and the turn bricks we should play turns with a very aggressive and polar range, I don't know if you were thinking check raise to get the money in here but I think this is an overbet spot. You have a range of nuts (overpairs, sets, TPTK) that wants to play for stacks and air (lots of overcards) so you should be putting maximum pressure on villains bluff catchers. I'd probably bet something like $15 here and look to jam on brick rivers. We want to put maximum pressure on all of villains single pair hands and not offer the right price to his draws IP so we should force him to make uncomfortable call downs for his stack rather than easy automatic ones. If you had taken this line the river does get fairly weird because this is the least bricky river except from a heart as villain now has nutted hands with T9 and TT which isn't a lot of combos but after the turn overbet they really don't need that many call downs, they should still be calling worse because they'll have so many missed draws that snap fold but it's hard to see you getting more value here from their worse hands than letting villain potentially bluff so if we got to this spot you can probably check and just go into bluff catching mode as villain will have missed draws here that want to bluff and they can't go too wild because you should be protecting your checking range with some sets (TT and 99 are best because they block villains calling range and are ahead of slowplays that will now jam for you anyway). Other overcards are more bricky as except from the ace villain never has better than a single pair hand which they may have got to by floating double overs + flushdraw but I don't know if they can float these hands profitably given the terrible odds they are getting on the turn and they fact that they are often dominated by your NFD and they are blocking your bluffs. However, you should also be bluffing with some air here from a balance perspective because you have so many value bets and not enough flushdraws to cover it + we need bluffs when the flushdraw completes - you should pick your air from hands that unblock villains flop floats and block their continuing range so AhXs would probably be the best air to bluff as it still has outs because we can jam on a queen, blocks the NFD and A9s (may or may not be in villains range, shouldn't be but could) and unblocks floats of diamonds or clubs that didn't turn a FD (KhXs might be better, slightly worse blocking effects but more outs because the king is a cleaner out than the ace). Not sure how many of these hands you should have after the flop given sizing but I don't mind betting them at some frequency and any time you get to the turn with the NFD blocker I think that's good enough to include here.
River is a weird spot, exploitatively I think you can overfold this kind of spot a lot however I think that the more you look at it the more bluffs villain could potentially have here and they don't need many to make this a profitable call because the value range is so thin. Villain will have a lot of overcards that didn't turn a flush draw so they didn't bet the turn that now want to try and take down the pot. Balance wise you should call 53.5% of your range here (100%-(20/43)) so then it's a question of what you're betting for value here, you're probably going to want to bluff all your Tx on the flop as it blocks T9s or has a BDFD potential or does both but then you're going to bluff the ones that turn a FD on the turn so that's 8 combos you probably get here with. You shouldn't really have overpairs here which makes it hard to say what you should do with them when you do have one, I'll imagine you check with aces and kings at 50% (were you to do this I think it's most efficient to pick the ones that unblock the BDFD because that increases the chance of our opponent bluffing) because they need less protection and bet your QQ-TT here so you have 14 value bets and if we assume you're doing this with a balanced range you should have a value to bluff ratio or 23:10 to make villain indifferent so you should have 8 bluffs here. Therefore you have 20 combos, 6 snap folds with your bluffs and you need around 10 calls. If villain never ever raises like this with AT then all the overpairs are immediately snap calls, if villain doesn't then I think we want to call our Tx first because it blocks T9s and TT which are much more important than the relative hand strength of an overpair so that's 8 combos and then we need 2 from our AA and KK, I'd probably call from our kings before our aces because I want to increase the chance that this is thin value with ATs and just randomise which ones because I can't really see any blocking effects. All that being said I might just call everything here because I think that villain could easily be overbluffing here even despite what we know about population tendencies regarding river raises.
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