50z BvB AJs

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50z BvB AJs

90% of the time i'll check here till river ,what you think ?

stats : 25/19 / raise sb 38% . fold 3bet : 43% , wtsd was around 27%~

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $57.75 (115.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $53.09 (106.2 bb)
UTG: $50 (100 bb)
MP: $124.22 (248.4 bb)
CO: $50.38 (100.8 bb)
BTN: $67.02 (134 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J A
4 folds, SB raises to $1.40, Hero raises to $5, SB calls $3.60

Flop: ($10) 9 5 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.34, SB calls $3.34

Turn: ($16.68) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9.50, SB calls $9.50

River: ($35.68) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $35.25 and is all-in

10 Comments

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zhizntakaja 9 years ago

Don't think 88 would be calling the turn, so basically youre trying to fold out hand like A9s, 9Ts, 9Js. Also he will have AQ probably 100proc of the time, +KQs maybe. I think turn bet is fine, river id just give up. Also flop I'd probably check back decent amount of the time with no backdoor draw, AJs without backdoor really low in your range so its fine to give up. Also regs are still pretty passive in nl50 so most likely they will not start bluffing with QJs ar some random air anyways. Plus a lot of good turn cards that you can delay cbet on. So no need to put such a high variance 3 barrels which most likely will show losses in long run. Bunch of better ways to play this hand IMO.

kafrinius 9 years ago

What's our info for sb ? is his wtsd low? folding to much on river bets?

If it was an expo 3 barrel maybe we can find a common point for reasoning your 3 barrel.

Some reasons not to play this hand the way u did ..

1) From ranges point of view U have far better hands to start double barreling before AJcc..
like KQ,KJ,78,A4 bla bla and the list goes on.....

2) river pairs and lowers the folding equity we wanna with our bluffs

3) the texture from flop through river hasn't any backdoor flush draws and the str8 possibilities are limited for a 3bet pot sb calling ranges.. that means the caller would have narrower range as default

my personal play would be 1/3 flop , bet turn give up river mixing with checkbacks on flop/revaulating later.

Kefir 9 years ago

I think check flop is a good dicision here becouse we dont will get enogh folds here. Ahigh hands will offten plays call, 66-88 will be call, often overcards call here and + we have SV with ahigh. So i would check flop and bet to second check on turn. If he bets than turn, i think we have to often fold, seldom raise and never call.

halimyok 9 years ago

Villian's range has a high hit rate on this flop,but your value cbet range has only overpair,so I think that you should check back flop instead of cbet .If villian bet turn,you can float here and bet river....As you played,hero must be input too much chips on river to stand for a very strong value range(fullhouse and trips) that can crush villian's entire range.you could have spent less chips to achieve this bluff.

Kalupso 9 years ago

Flop you can probably CB 100% of range if villain 4bet TT+. I think it's fine to barrel off, but turn and river should obviously be low frequency plays. Like max 30% OTT and river.

You need to fold out most 5x OTT and all 9x and a few other hands OTR to be 0EV+. The amount of sets and 2pair is not really a concern at this SPR. It's not like you put in huge bets to get all-inn.

Kalupso 9 years ago

I ran a PioSolver sim on the spot and CB 100% of range is the play OTF and 50% pot is better than small bet.

OTT it bets TT+ for value and bluffs very aggro. AJ is bet at over 90% frequency.

OTR it shuts down and only bets 12% of range. This is because Pio never folds 5x OTT and I did not include donk bet in sim. It also folds most 9x OTR, so Qx and overpairs are now too thin to valuebet.

If I include donk bet it starts value betting all overpairs and some AQ again. The river CB frequency has increased from 12% to 35% by including donk bet. The bluffing frequency of all possible air is 21,5%.

Mercurius 9 years ago

Kalupso,
I have start using Pio, but how do you know than a sizing is better than one other.
You try different possibility or there is an option than give you the best bet sizing ?

Kalupso 9 years ago

There are two methods and neither of them are perfect.

The fastest one is to use 2-4 bet sizes that covers most of the bet sizes that are viable. The one that is used at highest frequency is likely the best. It is usually enough to run it to 3% accuracy to see what bet size is preferred. You can then remove the other bet sizes and run it to high accuracy. Smaller bets usually means higher betting frequency, so a larger bet might be better than a smaller one even if the smaller one is used more often.

The most accurate is to run several simulations with different bet sizes to high accuracy and compare the EV of the strategy.

Kalupso 9 years ago

I can run this spot in Pio with your assumptions, if you post preflop ranges and an estimate of how villain plays turn and if he donk bets river.

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